[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 PM EDT Fri Sep 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Kirk is centered near 14.7N 64.7W at 28/2100 UTC
or 210 nm W of Martinique moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. Kirk is forecast to weaken to a tropical
depression tonight, and then degenerate into a trough of low
pressure on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk or
its remnants will move across the eastern and central Caribbean
Sea over the next day or two. Kirk is expected to produce total
rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and
southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10
inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Across Saint Croix
and eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches
with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches tonight and Saturday.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed
within 180 nm in the eastern semicircle. Please read the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

Subtropical Storm Leslie centered near 36.1N 48.1W at 28/2100
UTC or 1020 nm W of the Azores moving W at 9 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Earlier satellite data indicated
that the powerful low is producing storm-force winds that extend
several hundred miles from the center, and Leslie will likely
continue producing strong winds and high seas over a large portion
of the central Atlantic for the next few days. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 180 nm of the center. See latest
NHC forecast/advisoryunder AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 21W from 03N-19N. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm east of the wave axis south of 07N.
This system shows up well in the Total Precipitable Water
animation, and also has a sharp trough at the surface as seen by
the ASCAT scatterometer pass.

A second tropical wave near 45W extends from 02N-17N moving W at
10-15 kt. The TPW imagery shows a maximum E of the wave axis and
there is a trough in the GFS 700 mb analyses, but little signature
is seen at the surface. No significant convection is currently
associated with the wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the Caribbean Sea, near 82W from
21N southward. A pronounced 700 mb trough in the GFS analysis is
noted with the wave, but little signature of the wave is seen at
the surface. The wave, along with the monsoon trough, is helping
to induce scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within
180 nm of the wave axis south of 14N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 16N17W and
continues SW to near 08N21W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from
05N30W to 08N44W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near
08N46W to 08N55W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
03N to 08N between 20W and 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is located in the N Gulf waters from the
Florida Panhandle near 31N86W to Texas near 28N86W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front. Currents winds
across the Gulf are moderate breeze or weaker out of the east, as
a weak ridge is in place over the SE United States. The frontal
boundary should dissipate by Saturday with little change to the
winds during the next couple of days. Seas will remain below 8 ft
through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Kirk will bring strong winds and heavy rain over
portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight. Please, see Special
Features section for details. A tropical wave is moving across the
western Caribbean Sea. See Tropical Wave section for details.
Recent scatterometer data indicate generally easterly moderate
breeze or weaker winds ahead of Kirk, except for an outflow
boundary enhancement of winds to 25 kt in the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. As tropical cyclone Kirk weakens over the Caribbean
Sea, expect mainly moderate to fresh winds through early next
week. Large northerly swell associated with Leslie will affect
the tropical Atlantic waters tonight through Sunday, building
seas to 10 or 11 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are currently between the coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. A stationary front enters the forecast region
near 31N40W then continues SW to 21N58W. From there the feature
is a dissipating stationary front to 25N72W. The front is
associated with Leslie, which is centered N of area near 36N48W
with a central pressure of 986 mb. This system is moving W at 9
kt. Please, see Special Features Section for more details.

Large swell generated by Leslie is expected to propagate across
the waters east of 75W by tonight, reaching the Bahamas, the
waters N of Hispaniola and the Atlantic Passages E of la Mona
Passage by early Saturday, and the north and central coast of
Florida later on Saturday.

A ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure located near 32N65W
across the western Atlantic reaching Florida. Another ridge
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic E of the aforementioned
cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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