[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gordon was centered near 26.9N 84.3W at 0300 UTC,
or about 285 nm ESE of the mouth of Mississippi River, moving
WNW at 15 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Numerous moderate isolated strong showers are within 150 nm east
of the center. Public Advisories on Gordon are issued under the
WMO/AWIPS headers WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2. Forecast Advisories are
issued under WMO/AWIPS headers WTNT22 KNHC/MIATCMAT2.

Tropical Storm Florence was centered near 18.9N 41.0W at 0300
UTC, or about 1200 nm ENE of the Lesser Antilles, moving WNW at
12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous
moderate scattered strong showers are within 180 nm of the
center. Public Advisories on Florence are issued under WMO/AWIPS
headers WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1. Forecast Advisories are issued
under WMO/AWIPS headers WTNT21 KNHC/MIATCMAT1.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave axis is from 04N to 21N along 21W,
moving west at 15-20 kt, with a 1008 mb surface low analyzed
near 10N21W based on satellite and scatterometer data. Scattered
moderate showers are within 60 nm of the low center.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is south of 21N along 73W,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are associated with
this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W
to the low near 10N21W to 10N30W. The ITCZ is SW of Florence
from 09N44W to the coast of South America near 07N58W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 10N between
23W and 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see special features for details about Tropical Storm
Gordon. An upper level trough is west of Gordon along 86W.
Gordon is forecast move NW during the next 48 hours. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends southward from the Gulf of Mexico
to Belize. Isolated moderate showers cover the NW part of the
Caribbean Sea north of 15N and west of 80W.

A tropical wave moving across Haiti will reach the western
Caribbean Sea by mid week. Fresh to strong winds will continue
near the coast of Colombia tonight. A relatively weak ridge
north of 20N will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across
most of the region through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see special features for details about Tropical Storm
Florence. The projected path of Florence may bring strong winds
and seas to 9 ft to AMZ127 east of 62W by Thursday. Refer to the
Offshore Waters Forecast FZNT23 KNHC/MIAOFFNT3 for more details.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N57W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow in a broad trough covers the region
north of 19N between 50W and 65W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong showers are from 18N to 22N between 59W and 62W. Widely
scattered moderate showers are from 24N to 30N between 53W and
58W. Isolated showers are elsewhere in the area of upper level
cyclonic wind flow.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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