[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 AM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Florence...

Tropical Storm Florence is centered near 17.9N 35.9W at 03/0300
UTC or 690 nm WNW of The Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving
WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm
over the east semicircle of the center. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
for more details.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven is centered near 23.4N 78.7W at
03/0300 UTC or 150 nm ESE of Marathon Florida moving WNW at 13
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. A surface
trough extends from 27N77W to the low center. Scattered moderate
convection prevails from 22N-28N between 75W-80W. See the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean along 67W and has been
progressing west at 20 kt. Only isolated moderate convection is
currently flaring along the northern portion of the wave, and a
cluster of showers follows the wave within 120 nm of 20N60W.

A tropical wave extends east of the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf
of Honduras with axis along 86W between 08N-20N. This wave is
moving west at 15 kt and is accompanied by scattered moderate
convection affecting portions of Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the west coast of Africa at 18N16W
to 14N31W where it loses identity in the broad cyclonic
circulation associated with tropical storm Florence. The monsoon
trough develops southwest of Florence near 14N38W and extends
southwest to 11N46W, where scatterometer winds indicate a
transition to an ITCZ which continues west to 11N55W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 75 nm south of the monsoon
trough between 17W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for details on a surface
low with the potential to become a tropical cyclone as it tracks
north across the eastern gulf waters. Otherwise, weak surface
ridging prevails across the basin and is expected to continue for
the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information about two
tropical waves currently moving across the basin. A diffluent flow
aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection north of 16N
between 79W-86W. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong nocturnal
trades forecast along the northwest coast of Colombia overnight,
and then again briefly on Mon night. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information about
T.S Florence and a potential tropical cyclone located north of
Cuba. A surface trough was analyzed from 28N60W to 23N55W with
scattered moderate convection between 52W-61W. Another surface
trough is located from 17N62W to 20N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the trough between 57W-64W affecting the
Leeward Islands. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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