[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Florence...

Tropical Storm Florence is centered near 17.4N 34.6W at 02/2100
UTC or 700 nm W-NW of the southernmost Cabo Verde Island, moving
W-NW at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 120 nm
over the east semicircle of the center. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
for additional details.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven is centered near 22.7N 77.3W at
02/2100 UTC or 240 nm E-SE of Marathon Florida moving W-NW at 13
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm over
the east semicircle of the center. The system is forecast to cross
the Florida Keys on Mon and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by early Tue, and then continue toward the north-central
Gulf Coast on Tue night and Wed. This system will produce locally
heavy rains and gusty winds across the central and northwestern
Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next
day or two. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for additional details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean along 65W and has been
progressing west at 20 kt. Only isolated moderate convection is
currently flaring along the northern portion of the wave affecting
the Virgin Islands, and a large cluster of based scattered
moderate isolated strong convection follows the wave within 120 nm
of 20N60W.

A tropical wave extends east from the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf
of Honduras with axis along 85W. This wave is moving west at 15
kt and is accompanied by isolated moderate to strong convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the west coast of Africa at 14N17W
to 16N26W where it loses identity in the broad cyclonic circulation
associated with tropical storm Florence. The monsoon trough
develops southwest of Florence near 12N36W and extends southwest
to 08N44W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an
ITCZ which continues west to the coast of South America at
09N61W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 90 nm of a line from 13N13W to 12N22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for details on a surface low with
the potential to become a tropical cyclone as it tracks north
across the eastern gulf waters. Otherwise, weak surface ridging is
expected across the western gulf waters for the next few days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the tropical waves section above. Otherwise,fresh to locally
strong nocturnal trades forecast along the northwest coast of
Colombia overnight, and then again briefly on Mon night. Gentle
to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information about
T.S Florence and a potential tropical cyclone over the central
Bahamas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 180 nm of 27N55W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Nelson
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