[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290445
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1245 AM EDT Mon Oct 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Oscar centered near 25.6N 57.0W at 29/0300 UTC or 570
nm SE of Bermuda moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with
gusts to 80 kt. A continued westward motion with a decrease in
forward speed are expected overnight, followed by a turn toward
the west-northwest early Monday and a northwestward motion on
Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, Oscar is forecast to begin moving
toward the north or north-northeast with an increase in forward
speed. The hurricane is then expected to accelerate quickly toward
the northeast through the middle of the week. Strengthening is
forecast through Tuesday, followed by gradual weakening
thereafter. Scattered moderate convection is near the center from
24N-26N between 56W-58W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere in bands from 22N-29N between 50W-59W. The PUBLIC
ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC,
and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for
OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and via the
AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 01N-11N, moving west
at 10 kt. This is a low amplitude tropical wave. SSMI TPW imagery
shows the wave embedded in a region of deep layer moisture. A 700
mb trough is also associated with this wave. Isolated moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W from 01N-13N, moving west
at 10 kt. SSMI TPW satellite imagery shows this wave embedded in a
region of deep layer moisture. This wave is depicted on the
tropical wave model diagnostics, and is associated with a 700 mb
trough. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 10N14W to
08N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 07N32W. The ITCZ
resumes W of a tropical wave near 07N35W to 06N51W. Isolated
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 18W-30W.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N between
35W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the central Gulf of Mexico near
27N89W. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf from Tampico Mexico
near 22N97W to 20N96W, depicted by a wind shift. Overcast
multilayered clouds are over the SW Gulf S 0f 24N between 88W-98W.
Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf. In the
upper levels mostly zonal flow is noted.

Expect the next cold front to enter into NW Gulf of Mexico early
on Thursday, and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf
of Mexico early on Friday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 22N77W to the
Yucatan Channel near 21N85W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 18N91W.
Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean from 18N-
20N between 86W-88W. Further S, clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are over the SW Caribbean S of of 14N
to include Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia. Further
E, scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola from 17N-19N
between 70W-72W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the
Leeward Islands.

Moderate trades will persist across the Caribbean through Mon,
except for fresh to strong trades in the south- central sections.
High pressure building behind a weak reinforcing front will
support moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of Cuba Tue through
mid week, while maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds
elsewhere. The front will stall from eastern Cuba to northeast
Yucatan through Wed then dissipate late in the week. Expect a
return to fresh to strong trades from the tropical N Atlc to the
central Caribbean waters through late week as the high pressure
builds into the western Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N67W to 24N71W. A stationary front
continues through the central Bahamas to central Cuba near 22N77W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.

An upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 25N and W of
66W supporting the frontal system. An upper level low is centered
over the central Atlantic near 24N48W. Upper level diffluence E
of this center is producing scattered moderate convection from
20N-25N between 40W-47W.

The front over the W Atlantic will stall from near Bermuda to the
southern Bahamas Mon. A second cold front will move into the
waters off northeast Florida midday Mon, reach from near Bermuda
to South Florida Tue, then stall and weaken from 22N65W to the
Windward Passage by mid week before dissipating late in the week.
Swell in excess of 8 ft associated with Hurricane Oscar well east
of the area will impact the area generally east of 70W and north
of 22N early in the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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