[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 PM EDT Sun Oct 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Oscar is centered near 25.7N 55.5W at 28/2100 UTC or
630 nm SE of Bermuda moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with
gusts to 80 kt. A continued westward motion is expected
overnight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by early
Monday, with a northwestward motion forecast on Monday afternoon.
By Tuesday, Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north or
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed. The hurricane
is then expected to accelerate quickly toward the northeast
through the middle of the week. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours, followed by gradual weakening
thereafter. Scattered moderate convection is near the center from
24N-26N between 55W-57W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere in bands from 22N-29N between 53W-59W. The PUBLIC
ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC,
and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for
OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and via the
AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W from 01N-11N, moving west
at 10 kt. This is a low amplitude tropical wave. SSMI TPW imagery
shows the wave embedded in a region of deep layer moisture. A 700
mb trough is also associated with this wave. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the wave axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W from 01N-13N, moving west
at 10 kt. SSMI TPW satellite imagery shows this wave embedded in a
region of deep layer moisture. This wave is depicted on the
tropical wave model diagnostics, and is associated with a 700 mb
trough. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from
05N-12N between 41W-50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 12N16W to
08N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 07N29W. The ITCZ
resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N32W to 06N50W. Isolated
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 16W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 27N93W.
A surface trough is over the SW Gulf from Tampico Mexico near
22N98W to 20N96W, well depicted by a wind shift. Overcast
multilayered clouds are over the SW Gulf S 0f 24N between 88W-98W.
Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf. In the
upper levels mostly zonal flow is noted.

Expect the next cold front to enter into NW Gulf of Mexico early
on Thursday, and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf
of Mexico early on Friday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 22N78W to the
Yucatan Channel near 21N85W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N90W.
Scattered showers ate over the NW Caribbean from 16N-21N between
83W-88W. Further S, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over the SW Caribbean S of of 14N to include
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands.

Moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea tonight,
except for fresh to strong trade winds in the south central
sections. Expect the front to lift northward, while gradually
dissipating through Tuesday. Long period NE swell from Oscar will
move into the northern waters of the tropical N Atlantic Ocean,
and through the Caribbean Passages tonight, and dominate the seas
through Tuesday night. Strong surface high pressure will move E
across the W Atlantic Ocean from Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday night. This will allow for a return to fresh to strong
trade winds from the tropical N Atlantic Ocean to the central
Caribbean Sea waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N69W to 30N71W, 27N74W, and across
Andros Island in the Bahamas to 24N79W. The front becomes
stationary at 24N79W, and it continues SW across NW Cuba, into the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line
that runs from 25N71W to 29N68W beyond 32N67W. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere from 20N northward from 70W westward.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N36W, about
950 nm to the ENE of OSCAR. It makes up part of a larger- scale
E-to-W oriented trough, and cyclonic wind flow that covers the
area that is from 25N northward from 40W eastward.

The current Bahamas-to-Cuba frontal boundary will move SE, and
reach from 30N65W to central Cuba by Monday evening. Long period
NE swell from Oscar will move into the far SE waters tonight, and
continue across the entire area through Thursday. A second and
weak cold front will move into the northwest waters late Monday
afternoon and evening. It is expected that the front will become
stationary, nearly E to W near 24N, and then across the central
Bahamas on Wednesday. The frontal remnants will lift N as a warm
front in the western half of the area on Thursday, in advance of
the next cold front that will be moving across the Gulf of Mexico
at that time.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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