[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sun Oct 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Oscar at 28/0900 UTC is near 25.0N
52.6W. OSCAR is moving SW, or 235 degrees, 13 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots.
Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 300 nm to 420
nm of the center to the ENE and E. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 420 nm of the center in
the E semicircle. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 300 nm
of the center in the W semicircle. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for
OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC, and via the
AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for OSCAR are
available via the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header
MIATCMAT1.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 11N southward.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within
75 nm on either side of the line that runs from 05N30W to 08N27W
to 10N25W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W/52W from 13N southward.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 03N to 14N between 50W and
59W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 05N28W,
05N31W, 06N47W, and 04N50W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 03N to 13N between 36W and 50W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers also are
from 13N to 20N between 43W and 48W. This area of precipitation
is being stretched out, toward the northeast, by the upper level
wind flow.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 24N80W to
the Yucatan Channel near 21N85W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N94W
to S Mexico near 18N95W. Scattered showers are over the SW Gulf of
Mexico from 18N-24N between 89W-98W. A 1021 mb high is centered
over the NW Gulf near 28N92W. Another frontal boundary is
expected to enter the northern Gulf by Wed night.

The current NW Cuba-to-Yucatan Peninsula cold front will drift SE
and become stationary across the NW Caribbean Sea and the SW Gulf
of Mexico along 20N through tonight. A 1021 mb high pressure
center is near 28N92W, and it will meander about the NW Gulf of
Mexico through Monday night, before shifting NE of the basin.
A new cold front will sink southward across the far northeastern
Gulf of Mexico from Monday night through Tuesday, then become
diffuse Tuesday night and Wednesday. Strong high pres N of the
front will shift NE into the Atlc Wed and Thu and induce fresh
return flow across the basin late Tue through Wed before the next
cold front drops into NW Gulf early Thu and reaches from the
Florida Big Bend to SW Gulf early Fri morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface ridging extends SSW from a surface high centered
north of the area. An upper level high is centered over the SW
Caribbean near 12N80W. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow
spans the entire area.

Moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea today,
except for fresh to strong trade winds in the south central
sections. A cold front across NW Cuba and the Yucatan Channel
early this morning will move slowly SE, and become stationary
from W central Cuba to just N of Belize early Mon, then drift
northward and gradually dissipate through Tue. Long period NE
swell from Tropical Storm Oscar will move into the northern waters
of the tropical N Atlantic and through the Caribbean Passages
today and dominate seas through Tue night. Strong high pres will
move E across the W Atlc late Wed and Thu to bring a return to
fresh to strong trade winds from the tropical N Atlc to the
central Caribbean Sea waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N70W to
the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered moderate convection
is over the N Bahamas from 26N-27N between 77W-79W. Scattered
showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front.

Tropical storm Oscar is moving across the central Atlantic. Refer
to the section above for details. Surface ridging is over the E
Atlantic.

The front will stall and weaken from around 31N69W to central
Cuba on Sunday. A second cold front will move east of north
Florida on Monday, then slowly move south and stall over the
northern Bahamas by Tuesday.

The current Bahamas-to-Cuba cold front will move SE, and reach
from near 30N65W to central Cuba by late Monday. Long period NE
swell from Tropical Storm Oscar will move into the SE waters
tonight, and prevail across the entire area through Thursday.
A second and weak cold front will move over the northwest waters
late on Monday, and move SE through late Wednesday, where it
gradually will stall, on a nearly E to W line along 23N/24N, and
the S central Bahamas. The frontal remnants will lift N as a warm
front in the western half of the area on Thursday, in advance of
the next cold front that will be moving across the Gulf of Mexico
at that time.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ss/mrf/mt
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