[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280512
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
111 AM EDT Sun Oct 28 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Oscar centered near 25.7N 51.4W at 28/0300 UTC or
810 nm ESE of Bermuda moving WSW at 17 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55
kt with gusts to 65 kt. A turn toward the west and a slower
forward speed are expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward
the northwest on Monday. After that, Oscar is forecast to begin
moving toward the north and then the northeast Monday night or
Tuesday. Additional strengthening is likely during the next
couple of days, and Oscar is forecast to become a hurricane by
Sunday night. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-27N
between 49W-52W. Scattered moderate convection is also SE of the
center from 22N-26N between 45W-49W. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W from 01N-11N, moving west
at 15 kt. This is another low amplitude tropical wave. SSMI TPW
imagery shows the wave embedded in a region of deep layer
moisture. A 700 mb trough is also associated with this wave.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-09N
between 25W-33W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W/51W from 01N-13N, moving
west at 10 kt. SSMI TPW satellite imagery shows this wave
embedded in a region of deep layer moisture. This wave is also
depicted on the tropical wave model diagnostics. Scattered
moderate convection is from 13N-17N between 44W-49W. Isolated
moderate convection is also from 05N-12N between 44W-48W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 13N16W to
10N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N30W to 04N49W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 20W-25W, and
from 07N-10N between 36W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 24N80W to
the Yucatan Channel near 21N85W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N94W
to S Mexico near 18N95W. Scattered showers are over the SW Gulf of
Mexico from 18N-24N between 89W-98W. A 1021 mb high is centered
over the NW Gulf near 28N92W. Another frontal boundary is
expected to enter the northern Gulf by Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface ridging extends SSW from a surface high centered
north of the area. An upper level high is centered over the SW
Caribbean near 12N80W. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow
spans the entire area.

Gentle to moderate trades will prevail across the Caribbean
through early tonight, except for fresh to strong trades in the
south-central sections. A cold front across the Straits of Florida
to the Yucatan Channel tonight will move slowly SE overnight and
become stationary from central Cuba to just NE of Belize early
Sun, and gradually dissipate through Sun night. The fresh to
strong trades in the south-central Caribbean will diminish to
moderate to fresh trades Mon through Thu. Long period NE swell
from Tropical Storm Oscar will begin to move into the northern
waters of the tropical N Atlantic and through the Caribbean
Passages tonight and dominate seas through Mon afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N70W to
the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered moderate convection
is over the N Bahamas from 26N-27N between 77W-79W. Scattered
showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front.

Tropical storm Oscar is moving across the central Atlantic. Refer
to the section above for details. Surface ridging is over the E
Atlantic.

The front will stall and weaken from around 31N69W to central
Cuba on Sunday. A second cold front will move east of north
Florida on Monday, then slowly move south and stall over the
northern Bahamas by Tuesday.

Elsewhere, light to moderate trades will prevail over the
tropical Atlantic from the ITCZ to 15N between 35W and the
Windward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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