[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270508
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
108 AM EDT Sat Oct 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly formed Subtropical Storm Oscar is centered near 26.7N 45.7W
at 27/0300 UTC, with winds of 40 kt gusting to 50 kt. Oscar has a
central pressure of 1005 mb and is moving NNW at 8 kt. Oscar is
interacting with a broad upper-level low to the SW and as a result
a broad arc of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is found between 120 nm and 360 nm of 24N46W, except within the
southern quadrant. A turn toward the W and WSW at a faster
forward speed is expected on Saturday, with this motion continuing
through Sunday night. Gradual strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Oscar could become a tropical storm
on Sunday. Please refer to the TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK,
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis extending from 02N47W to
13N45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
present from 06N to 13N between 41W and 50W. TPW satellite imagery
shows this wave to be embedded in a region of deep layer
moisture. This feature also is well depicted in tropical wave
model diagnostic and initial 700 mb model fields.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough heads WSW from the coast of Guinea on the
African coast near 11N14W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from
08N17W to 05N26W to 04N34W to 07N45W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 09N between 16W
and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front curves SW from 31N81W to just N of Ft Myers Florida
near 27N83W to the SW Gulf of Mexico near 23N92W, then continues
as a stationary front to the vicinity of Veracruz on the coast of
Mexico near 21N97W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted along and up to 120 nm N of the front to the W
of 87W.

High pressure building SE from the southern plains of the united
states will eventually push the front to the SE of the Gulf by
Sun morning. A second and much weaker cold front will clip the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico Mon and Tue, followed by high
pressure building SW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface ridging extends SSW from a 1026 mb Atlantic Ocean
high centered near 35N62W toward the Caribbean. Broad mid to upper
level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
Sea through Saturday. A frontal boundary currently over the Gulf
of Mexico will eventually push across the Yucatan Channel on
Saturday night and Sunday. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are
expected over the south central Caribbean Sea on Sat night and
Sun, before low pres moving over the western Atlc from the
eastern United states weakens the ridge N of the Caribbean Mon and
Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Convergent S to SSW low-level winds to the E of a cold front over
Florida are generating scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection from 23N to 28N between 72W and 75W.

A surface trough curves W from weak 1012 mb low pressure centered
just NW of the Canary Islands near 30N19W to 27N25W to 28N30W.
This system has no significant convection currently associated
with it.

The cold front currently beginning to emerge over the western
Atlc from Florida will push SE into the NW Bahamas today, then
stall and weaken from around 31N70W to central Cuba on Sunday. A
second but weaker cold front will move E of north Florida Mon then
slowly sink S Tue and stall over the northern Bahamas on
Wednesday.

Otherwise, high pres ridging over the Atlc is weakened by low pres
moving over the western Atlc from the SE United States, Sub T.S.
Oscar and low pres near the Canary Islands. Accordingly, the
weakened ridge is generally supporting light to moderate trades
over the tropical Atlc from the ITCZ to 15N between 25W and the
Windward Islands.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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