[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Fri Oct 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 mb low pressure center is near 25.5N46W. A broad arc of
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found on the
NE side of this system within 90 nm either side of a line from
23N41W to 27N43W to 27N50W. Near gale force winds are already
occurring to the east of the center, and this system could become
a tropical or subtropical storm at any time tonight or tomorrow.
An area of gale force winds is expected to develop E of the center
by Sat evening. The chance of this system becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours remains high. The system is
expected to move northward to north-northeastward over the central
Atlantic through tonight, and then turn westward on Saturday,
remaining well to the north or northeast of the Lesser Antilles
through early next week. Please refer to the TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK, MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis extending from 01N44W to
12N44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
present from 06N to 11N between 44W and 48W. TPW satellite imagery
shows this wave to be embedded in a region of deep layer
moisture.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough heads WSW from the coast of Guinea on the
African coast near 09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from
06N20W to 05N30W to 04N42W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is seen from 03N to 08N between 20W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a 1003 mb low pressure over SE Georgia
to the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to the central Gulf of
Mexico near 24N90W, then continues as a stationary front to the
coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted along and up to 150 nm N of the front to the W of 90W.

The SE Georgia low pressure center will move ENE tonight and
drag the cold front across much of the Gulf of Mexico. The front
will be nearly stationary from central Cuba to the SW Gulf of
Mexico by Saturday night. A second and weaker cold front will
sweep across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from Sunday night through
Tuesday, followed by building high pressure.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad surface ridging extends S from a 1020 mb Atlantic Ocean
high centered near 33N63W SW toward the Caribbean. Broad mid to
upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.

Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
Sea through Saturday. A cold front, that is crossing the Gulf of
Mexico, will become stationary across the Yucatan Channel on
Saturday night and Sunday. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are
expected in the south central Caribbean Sea on Saturday night and
Sunday, before weakening again from Monday through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front passes ESE through coastal SE Georgia, to 30N69W.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from 21N70W at the
southern part of the SE Bahamas, to 28N63W, and beyond 32N62W.
Rainshowers are possible from 18N to 22N between 54W and 70W, near
a remnant cloud line.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area
from 18N to 23N between 32W and 50W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 19N to 22N between 32W and
37W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the area of
upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A cold front passes through 32N51W to 27N57W and 25N67W.
Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the cold
front.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N
between Africa and 30W. A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb
low pressure center that is near 32N20W, to 30N19W 29N20W, and to
26N23W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from
29N northward between 15W and 23W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 25N northward between Africa and 30W.

The warm front will lift N of the area tonight as low pressure in
SE Georgia tracks ENE. Strong E to SE winds E of Florida will
continue through Friday, as a low pressure center moves across
Georgia. A trailing cold front from the low will reach from 31N75W
into the NW Bahamas on Saturday, then stall and weaken from
around 31N70W to central Cuba on Sunday. A weak cold front will
move E of north Florida on Monday and Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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