[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

Tue Oct 9 05:05:26 CDT 2018

WTUS82 KJAX 091004
HLSJAX
FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-133-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-091600-

Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 11
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL142018
604 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

***MICHAEL EXPECTED TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO***

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Brantley, Charlton,
      Coastal Camden, Coastal Glynn, Inland Camden, Inland Glynn,
      Pierce, and Wayne

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Appling, Atkinson,
      Bacon, Brantley, Charlton, Clinch, Coastal Camden, Coastal
      Glynn, Coffee, Columbia, Echols, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Inland
      Camden, Inland Glynn, Jeff Davis, Pierce, Suwannee, Ware, and
      Wayne

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 450 miles south-southwest of Gainesville FL or about 540
      miles south-southwest of Waycross GA
    - 24.1N 85.9W
    - Storm Intensity 90 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 345 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Michael was moving north-northwestward at 12 mph and is
expected to strengthen to major hurricane intensity tonight as it
gradually turns northward over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Michael
is forecast to make landfall over the Florida Panhandle coast on
Wednesday as a major hurricane and then track northeastward across
south central Georgia and the Carolinas on Thursday and Friday. The
possibility remains for tropical storm force winds across southeast
Georgia, and for portions of inland northeast Florida, likely arriving
on Wednesday morning. There is also a low possibility of hurricane
force wind gusts for portions of inland southeast Georgia and the
western Suwannee River Valley in northeast Florida. These winds could
cause numerous power outages due to falling trees and powerlines.
Rainbands associated with Michael will move into the local areas
beginning during the predawn and early morning hours on Wednesday
and continuing through the overnight hours. The threat for tornadoes
will increase across much of our region by Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Inland and river flooding is also a concern, mainly across
southeast Georgia, which will be closer to the track of Hurricane
Michael.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous winds having possible significant impacts across
southeast Georgia and portions of inland northeast Florida. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across locations east of U.S. Highway 301 in northeast Florida.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee River Valley
in northeast Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the rest of northeast Florida and southeast
Georgia.

* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across coastal southeast Georgia and along portions of the northeast
Florida coast. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quick

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets
for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 12 PM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Nelson
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net