[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Michael Local Statement Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL  AL142018
1209 PM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018

This product covers Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

**HURRICANE MICHAEL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT WITH IMPACTS IN THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Appling, Atkinson,
      Bacon, Clinch, Coffee, Columbia, Echols, Gilchrist, Hamilton,
      Jeff Davis, Suwannee, and Ware

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Appling, Atkinson,
      Bacon, Clinch, Coffee, Columbia, Echols, Gilchrist, Hamilton,
      Jeff Davis, Suwannee, and Ware

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 610 miles south-southwest of Gainesville FL or about 710
      miles south-southwest of Waycross GA
    - 21.2N 84.9W
    - Storm Intensity 75 mph
    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 7 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Michael was moving north at 7 mph and will track into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. It is forecast to make landfall
over the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend coast Wednesday and then track
northeastward over the southeast U.S. Potential for tropical force winds
expected for areas of inland northeast Florida and southeast Georgia beginning
as early as Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. These winds may cause scattered
to numerous power outages due to falling trees and powerlines. Rainbands
associated with Michael will move into the local areas from late Tuesday night
through early Thursday morning. Some areal inland flooding is possible as
the tropical cyclone moves into the northeast Gulf on Wednesday.
An isolated tornado threat is expected Wednesday through Wednesday
night mainly over inland areas.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts across inland
northeast Florida and inland southeast Georgia. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, prepare for dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across areas east of the tropical storm watch.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia.
Potential impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the Suwannee
Valley area and portions of inland southeast Georgia.
Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling
trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate to a
safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways open for
those under evacuation orders.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Jacksonville FL around 530 PM, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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