[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave moving W off the coast of W Africa at 15 kt is
along 20W S of 13N. The wave is well depicted on SSMI TPW
imagery. Dry Saharan air is keeping the area free of convection.

A tropical wave is along 54W S of 12N moving W at 15 kt. The
wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery.
Isolated moderate convection is south of 08N within 120 nm west
of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues west of the tropical wave along
20W from 07N21W to 02N32W to the coast of South America near
02N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
the equator to 04N between 28W and 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair weather prevails across the the basin tonight, as isolated
showers in the eastern Gulf have dissipated during the past 6-8
hours. Winds are from the SE at 10-20 kt, and seas are 2-4 ft.

A large upper level high is centered over southern Mexico near
21N103W, producing northerly upper level flow over the western
Gulf. A sharp upper level trough is over the E Gulf with axis
along 88W.

A surface trough is expected to form over the Yucatan peninsula
each evening then drift over the southwest Gulf during the night
through Sun. Elsewhere, surface ridging across the northern Gulf
will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers over western Cuba will persist during the next
6 to 12 hours. Localized flooding of low-lying areas may occur
overnight, with conditions expected to continue to improve Thu.

Isolated moderate convection is in the NW Caribbean west of 81W.
5-15 kt southerly winds prevail across the western Caribbean,
and 15-20 kt trade winds are over the central and eastern
Caribbean E of 80W. An upper level trough remains over the E
Caribbean with strong subsidence.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean with moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere during the next several days. Fresh E to
SE winds are likely in the Gulf of Honduras through Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A discontinuous frontal boundary is analyzed N of 30N between
50W and 70W. Scattered moderate showers are north of 28N between
49W and 68W. A broad ridge across the east-central Atlantic is
anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 31N29W, and extends
westward along 28N-29N to a 1020 mb high pressure NE of the
Bahamas near 28N70W.

The frontal boundary will sag southward overnight as a weak cold
front, and extend from 32N50W to 28N56W to 28N65N by Thursday
afternoon. A stationary front will extend from 28N65W to 32N68W.
The cold front will shift eastward into the central Atlantic to
extend from 32N41W to 27N50W to 26N60W on Friday, then stall and
dissipate along 26N Friday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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