[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Wed May 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Isolated showers over western Cuba will persist overnight.
Localized flooding of low-lying areas and the potential for
landslides in rugged terrain is still possible in western Cuba
tonight, and conditions are expected to improve Thursday.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave moving W off the coast of W Africa at 15 kt is
along 18W S of 14N. The wave is well depicted on SSMI TPW
imagery. Dry Saharan air is keeping the area free of convection.

A tropical wave is along 53W S of 13N moving W at 15 kt. The
wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery.
Isolated moderate convection is south of 08N within 150 nm west
of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W
to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues west of the tropical wave along
18W from 07N20W to 02N31W to 02N45W to the coast of South
America near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180
nm of the ITCZ west of 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Isolated moderate convection remains over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico E of 86W including the Straits of Florida. The remainder
of the Gulf has mostly fair weather. Winds are predominately
from the SE at 10-20 kt, and seas are 3 ft or less.

In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over S
Mexico near 21N103W producing northerly upper level flow over the
W Gulf. A sharp upper level trough is over the E Gulf with axis
along 87W.

Showers and thunderstorms will persist over the eastern Gulf
this evening. By late Thursday, troughing will form over the
western Yucatan each evening and drift over the southwest Gulf
overnight through Sun. Elsewhere, surface ridging across the
northern Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds for the
next five days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated moderate convection is along the coast of Honduras from
13N-17N between 82W-84W and over Central America from Nicaragua
to Panama. 5-15 kt southerly winds prevail across the western
Caribbean, and 15-20 kt trade winds are over the central and
eastern Caribbean E of 80W.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the E
Caribbean with strong subsidence.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean with moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere the next several days. Strong E to SE
winds are possible over the Gulf of Honduras this afternoon
through Fri between the Atlantic ridge and troughing west of the
area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate showers are north of 28N between 52W and 68W.
A broad ridge across the central Atlantic is anchored by a 1024
mb high centered near 30N30W, and extends westward along 29N to
northern Florida. High pressure is expected to develop north of
the Bahamas starting tonight, while a cold front moves into the
waters north of 26N and east of 70W through Thu, then stall and
dissipating along 25N Fri. The ridge will shift south Sat ahead
of a trough moving through the Carolinas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ Mundell
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