[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301631
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1231 PM EDT Wed May 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Isolated moderate convection with scattered showers continue over
western Cuba. Although rainfall totals are lower than observed
during the previous 3-4 days, any additional rain will contribute
to current flooding conditions. Flooding of low-lying areas and
the potential for landslides in rugged terrain will remain a
threat in western Cuba today.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is just off the coast of W Africa along 17W S of
14N, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is well depicted on SSMI total
precipitable water imagery. An area of dry dusty air is, however,
N and W of the wave as shown on Saharan Air Layer imagery. The
wave is presently void of convection.

A tropical wave is along 52W S of 13N moving W at 15 kt. The wave
shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Isolated
moderate convection is within 150 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 02N30W to 02N43W to
the coast of South America near 00N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Widely scattered moderate convection remains over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico E of 85W to include Florida, and the Straits of
Florida. The remainder of the Gulf has mostly fair weather. Winds
are predominately from the SE at 10-20 kt, and seas are 4 ft or
less.

In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over S
Mexico near 21N103W producing northerly upper level flow over the
W Gulf. A sharp upper level trough is over the E Gulf with axis
along 87W.

Showers and thunderstorms will persist over the eastern Gulf
through late today. By late Thu, troughing will form over the
western Yucatan each evening and drift over the southwest Gulf
overnight through Sun. Elsewhere, surface ridging across the
northern Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds for the
next five days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to islated strong convection is along the coast
of E Honduras from 13N-17N between 82W-84W. Elsewhere, isolated
moderate convection is over Central America from Nicaragua to
Panama. 5-15 kt southerly winds are over the W Caribbean, and
15-20 kt trade winds are over the central and E Caribbean E of
80W.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the NW
Caribbean. A ridge is over the central Caribbean. An upper level
trough is over the E Caribbean with strong subsidence.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean with moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere the next several days. Strong E to SE winds
are possible over the Gulf of Honduras this afternoon through Fri
between the high pressure and troughing west of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated moderate convection with scattered showers are over the W
Atlantic W of 76W. A broad surface ridge across the east-central
Atlantic is anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 29N37W and a
1025 mb high near 31N28W.

A surface ridge axis extends W from the highs along 29N to N
Florida. A high pressure center will develop northwest of the
northern Bahamas starting later today as a cold front moves into
the waters north of 26N and east of 70W through Thu, before
stalling and dissipating along 25N Fri. The high pressure center
will dissipate and the ridge will shift south Sat ahead of a
trough moving through the Carolinas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net