[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed May 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Isolated moderate convection with scattered showers continue over
western Cuba. Although rainfall totals are lower than observed
during the previous 3-4 days, any additional rain will contribute
to current flooding conditions. Widespread flooding of low-lying
areas and the potential for landslides in rugged terrain will
remain a serious threat in western Cuba today.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 50W S of 13N moving W at 15 kt. The wave
shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery. Isolated
moderate convection is within 150 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 01N33W to 01N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Widely scattered moderate convection remains over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico E of 85W to include Florida, and the Straits of
Florida. The remainder of the Gulf has mostly fair weather. Winds
are predominately from the SE at 10-20 kt, and seas are 4 ft or
less.

In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over S
Mexico near 21N103W producing northerly upper level flow over the
W Gulf. A sharp upper level trough is over the E Gulf with axis
along 87W.

Expect a broad surface ridge along 28N to maintain generally fair
weather after Friday across the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to islated strong convection is along the coast
of E Honduras from 13N-17N between 82W-84W. Elsewhere, isolated
moderate convection is over Central America from Nicaragua to
Panama. 5-15 kt southerly winds are over the W Caribbean, and
15-20 kt trade winds are over the central and E Caribbean E of
80W.

In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the NW
Caribbean. A ridge is over the central Caribbean. An upper level
trough is over the E Caribbean with strong subsidence.

Surface high pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean with moderate
to fresh trades elsewhere. Fresh E to SE winds are possible over
the Gulf of Honduras by late Thu between the high pressure and
troughing west of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated moderate convection with scattered showers are over the W
Atlantic W of 76W. A broad surface ridge across the east-central
Atlantic is anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 30N38W and a
1025 mb high near 33N22W. Moderate trade winds are expected south
of the ridge the next several days. A cold front will reach near
30N in the central Atlantic Thursday. The trailing portion of the
front will move east Friday, with isolated convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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