[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed May 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Scattered moderate showers continue over central and western
Cuba. Although rainfall totals are lower than observed during
the previous 3-4 days, any additional rain will contribute to
current flooding conditions. Widespread flooding of low-lying
areas and the potential for landslides in rugged terrain will
remain a serious threat in western Cuba through this afternoon.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 49W S of 13N moving W at 15 kt. The
wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery.
Isolated moderate convection is within 150 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W
to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 01N31W to 01N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ axis W of 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate convection remains over the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico from convergence into the circulation of what is left
of Alberto in Tennessee near 35.6N 87.5W. Winds and seas in the
NE Gulf of Mexico will continue to diminish today as the low
moves further inland. The western Gulf has mostly clear skies. A
broad ridge along 28N is expected to maintain generally fair
weather through Friday across the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is just south of Cuba between 82W-
85W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over Central
America from Nicaragua to Panama. 5-15 kt southerly winds are
over the W Caribbean, and 15-20 kt trade winds are over the
central and E Caribbean E of 80W.

Strong subsidence associated with an upper level trough is
evident from water vapor imagery in the eastern Caribbean E of
73W. High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean with moderate
to fresh trades elsewhere. Fresh E to SE winds are possible over
the Gulf of Honduras by late Thu between the high pressure and
troughing west of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated showers between the Bahamas and Cuba. A broad surface
ridge across the east-central Atlantic is anchored by a 1026 mb
high centered near 30N38W and a 1027 mb high near 33N22W.
Moderate trade winds are expected south of the ridge the next
several days. A cold front will reach near 30N in the central
Atlantic Thursday. The trailing portion of the front will move
east Friday, with isolated convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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