[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue May 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Scattered moderate showers continue over central and western
Cuba, but rainfall totals are significantly lower than observed
during the previous 3-4 days. Widespread flooding of low-lying
areas and the potential for landslides in rugged terrain will
remain a serious threat in Cuba through Wed morning.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 47W-48W S of 13N moving W at 15 kt. The
wave shows up well on SSMI total precipitable water imagery.
Isolated moderate convection is within 120 NM of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N14W
to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 02N30W to 02N47W.
Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ axis W of 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate convection remains over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico E of 87W from convergence into the circulation of what is
left of Alberto in Alabama near 34N87W. Winds and seas in the NE
Gulf of Mexico will continue to diminish overnight as the low
moves further inland. Scattered moderate convection is over the
Straits of Florida from tropical moisture advecting N from Cuba
and the Caribbean Sea. The western Gulf in contrast has mostly
fair weather.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is S of Cuba from 16N-20N between
81W-83W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over Central
America from E Honduras to Panama. 5-15 kt southerly winds are
over the W Caribbean, and 15-20 kt trade winds are over the
central and E Caribbean E of 80W.

Of significance in the upper levels, a ridge is producing
northerly flow from Nicaragua to beyond Cuba driving convection
N. The return flow is driving upper level moisture S from the S
Bahamas to Haiti to N Colombia.

High pressure in the central Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean with moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere. Strong E to SE winds are possible over
the Gulf of Honduras by late Thu between the high pressure and
troughing west of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated moderate convection is between the Bahamas and Cuba. A
broad surface ridge across the east-central Atlantic is anchored
by 1026 mb highs centered near 30N36W and 32N29W. Moderate trade
winds are expected south of the ridge the next several days. A
cold front will reach near 30N in the central Atlantic Thursday.
The trailing portion of the front will move east Friday, with
isolated convection.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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