[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160524
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
124 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak and ill-defined tropical wave is along 33W/34W from 10N
southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers cover the
area that is from 06N southward between 30W and 40W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N15W and 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W
to 01N30W and 01N40W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 03N to 07N between 12W and 18W. isolated
moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from the Florida Panhandle to a 1009 mb
low pressure center that is near 28N86W, to 25N87W and 24N88W.
An upper level trough has been in the eastern half of the Gulf of
Mexico during the last few days. An upper level cyclonic
circulation center is near 29N85W. The GFS model for 250 mb and
for 500 mb maintains the upper level trough and cyclonic
circulation center for the next few days. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow is in the Caribbean Sea from the Windward Passage
westward, and in the Atlantic Ocean from 74W westward. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the areas
from 18N in the Caribbean Sea northward between 73W in the
Atlantic Ocean and 87W in the Gulf of Mexico, including across the
Bahamas, Florida, Cuba, and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico.

Broad low pressure continues in the eastern waters, with a weak
low pressure center currently in the northeast Gulf waters. The
low pressure center is forecast to drift northward, reaching
inland in the Florida Panhandle by early Thursday. The low
pressure center is forecast to move northward. A surface trough
will trail from the low pressure center, across the north central
Gulf waters, through Friday. High pressure will build in its wake
and prevail through the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across the area that is
between 80W and 90W, including across Central America. Scattered
to numerous strong rainshowers are in western Nicaragua, and in
the eastern Pacific Ocean from 12N to 16N between 90W and 94W,
mostly in the coastal waters from El Salvador toward the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers cover parts of northern Guatemala and the SE
Yucatan Peninsula.

The monsoon trough is along 08N74W in northern Colombia, through
Panama and southern Costa Rica, beyond 09N85W, into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. isolated moderate rainshowers are in inland
sections and the coastal waters of Panama.

Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong
trade winds across the Caribbean Sea, south of 18N east of 80W,
through the upcoming weekend, with highest seas of 9 feet off the
northwest coast of Colombia. Large northeast swell will reach the
tropical waters northeast of the Virgin Islands on Friday, and
reach the northeast Atlantic Ocean Passages on Saturday, with
seas then subsiding from the east on Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure center that
is near 33N42W, to a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near
31N56W, to 30N72W, to the Florida coast near 30N81W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 20N
from 60W eastward, and from 20N northward from 80W eastward.

An upper level trough extends from a Canary Islands cyclonic
circulation center, to 29N23W, to a second cyclonic circulation
center that is near 27N40W, The trough continues to 23N50W and
21N59W.

Surface high pressure will prevail in the forecast waters through
Sunday. Fresh to locally strong winds will prevail across the
tropical waters, including the approaches to the northern
Caribbean Sea Passages.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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