[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave - the first of the season - has been included on
the Surface Analysis near 31W from about 02N to 11N. There is no
discernible surface signature to the wave, though it is well
defined on the SUNY-Albany Trough Diagnostics through cyclonic
turning of the 700 mb winds as well as a maximum in total
precipitable water just east of wave axis. No significant deep
convection is associated with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near
10N14W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N27W and
01N37W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers
are from 03N to 06N between 14W and 18W. isolated moderate
rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1010 mb broad surface low is centered over the northeastern Gulf
near 28N86W with an attached trough extending northeastward to the
Florida panhandle and southwestward to 23N91W. The system is a
deep-layer low with the upper tropospheric circulation center
nearly collocated at 28N85W. The surface low is anticipated to
drift slowly northward and move inland over the southeastern
United States by Thursday morning. A Special Tropical Weather
Outlook was issued this morning at 1200 UTC, which gives the
system a Low chance of development into a tropical or subtropical
cyclone. Areal coverage and intensity of the convection associated
with this system remain very limited. Only isolated moderate
convection is occurring within 120 nm of the trough in the Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection will
occur in association with this system for the next two days over
the Gulf of Mexico. Winds - away from any thunderstorm activity -
are moderate breeze or less for the next few days.

Broad low pressure continues over the eastern waters
with a weak surface low currently over the northeast gulf waters
forecast to drift north reaching inland the Florida Panhandle by
early Thu. As the low continues northward it will trail a trough
across the north-central waters through Fri. A ridge will set up
from the Florida Big Bend to the Texas Coastal during the upcoming
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong
trades across the Caribbean south of 18N east of 80W through the
upcoming weekend with highest seas of 9 ft off the northwest coast
of Colombia. Large northeast swell will reach the tropical waters
northeast of the Virgin Islands on Fri, and reach the northeast
Atlantic Passages on Sat, with seas then subsiding from the east
on Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1033 mb surface high is centered north of our area at 40N26W
with a surface ridge extending west-southwestward to 31N74W.

Surface tradewinds are generally fresh breeze or weaker across
the area, except for strong breeze just north of Hispaniola
including the approach to the Windward Passage. Little change is
expected during the next few days. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is occurring between 23N-30N from 72W-80W in
association with the deep-layer low centered over the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico. Continued presence of scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is expected during the next few days
for the central and western Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and
the waters west of 75W due to the strong southerly advection of
moisture along with the upper level trough to the west.

A ridge will meander from Bermuda to Port Canaveral
Florida through Sun supporting fresh to locally strong flow
across the tropical waters including the approaches to the
northern Caribbean Passages.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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