[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Sun May 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for AGADIR until 14 May at 1200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to
01N20W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 12W-15W. Scattered
showers are from 00N-03N between 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered over N Georgia near 35N84W producing
10-15 kt E to SE surface winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Radar
imagery shows isolated moderate convection over S Florida, the
Straits of Florida, and W Cuba, due to a surface trough.

The surface trough will amplify over the SE Gulf today. Low
pressure will develop along the trough W of Florida on Monday
and move NW, moving inland over the SE United States by midweek.
Showers and thunderstorms will affect the Gulf waters near and E
of the low.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds
along the coast of N Colombia, and weakest winds over the NW
Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean
mostly S of W Cuba. The Monsoon Trough is along 08N passing from
the eastern Pacific Ocean to Costa Rica to Panama to northern
Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S
of 11N. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Caribbean
with axis from Costa Rica to Haiti. A good amount of upper level
moisture is over this area. In contrast, strong subsidence is over
the SE Caribbean and the Windward Islands.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central
Caribbean Sea through Thursday. NE swell will maintain sea heights
about 8 feet in the southern part of the tropical N Atlantic
Ocean forecast waters until Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough over the W Atlantic extends from 32N77W to
central Florida near 27N80W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm
of the trough. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are
elsewhere N of 20N and W of 72W. A 1026 mb high is centered over
the central Atlantic near 32N49W. A surface trough is over the E
Atlantic from 32N39W to 27N37W.

An upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 25N
between 50W-60W with scattered showers. An upper level low is
centered over the E Atlantic near 31N33W with scattered showers.

The current W Atlantic surface trough will lift slowly NW over
Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico tonight and on Sunday. A ridge
in the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain moderate to fresh SE
winds in the forecast waters through Wednesday night. Strong winds
will pulse N of Hispaniola each day from afternoon to late
evening. It is possible that the winds speeds may become strong N
of 27N and W of 77W Mon night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net