[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 AM EDT Sun May 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area that is called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for
the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 14
May/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a N or NE near gale
or gale in AGADIR.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W, to
01N20W, to the Equator along 29W, to 01S44W off the coast of
Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers, in a disorganized pattern, are from 07N southward
from 40W eastward, and from 10N southward between 40W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through central Florida, into the north
central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the area. A NW-to-SE
orientated upper level trough passes through the north central
Gulf of Mexico, beyond the Yucatan Channel. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the
Yucatan Channel.

A surface trough will amplify in the SE Gulf on Sunday. Low
pressure will develop along the trough W of Florida on Monday, and
move slowly NW, moving inland in the SE U.S.A. by midweek.
rainshowers with thunder will affect the Gulf waters near and E of
the low.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A NW-to-SE orientated upper level trough is in the Yucatan
Channel and in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner
of the area. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
rest of the area that is to the east of the line that runs from NE
Nicaragua to the Windward Passage.

The Monsoon Trough is along 09N75W beyond 07N80W, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 12N southward from 75W westward.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central
Caribbean Sea through Thursday. NE swell will maintain sea heights
about 8 feet in the southern part of the tropical N Atlantic
Ocean forecast waters until Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough passes through Bermuda, to 30N70W, across the NW
Bahamas near Eleuthera, southern sections of Andros Island, to
the coast of Cuba near 23N78W on the Atlantic Ocean side. Clouds
and precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the waters and islands from Cuba at 20N between
72W and Florida, including possibly across parts of Florida.
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other possible
rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 50W and 70W, with a 60W trough from 20N
northward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are from 23N northward between 50W and
60w.

An upper level trough extends from a 29N35W cyclonic circulation
center, to 20N44W, to 13N57W, about 180 nm to the east of the
eastern islands of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along
31N39W 28N38W 26N37W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible
from 27N northward between 30W and 40w.

The current surface trough, from Bermuda to Cuba, will lift slowly
NW over Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico tonight and on Sunday.
A ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain moderate to
fresh SE winds in the forecast waters through Wednesday night.
Strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola each day from afternoon to
late evening. It is possible that the winds speeds may become
strong N of 27N and W of 77W Mon night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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