[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 AM EDT Sat May 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 14 May/1200
UTC, consists of: the persistence of a N or NE near gale to gale
in AGADIR.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to 00N30W
to 01N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 12W-18W, and from
03S-04N between 36W-52W.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-20 kt SE return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest
winds N of the Yucatan Peninsula. Radar imagery shows scattered
moderate convection over the SE Gulf, W Cuba, and S Florida.
Scattered showers are over central Florida. An upper level trough
is over the central Gulf of Mexico with axis along 90W.

High pressure over the northern waters will lift
northward this weekend as a surface trough develops over the SE
Gulf. Low pressure will develop along the trough W of Florida on
Sun and slowly move NW toward the Florida Panhandle. This system
will make landfall Tue night and then head into the SE United
States. Showers and thunderstorms will affect the Gulf waters
near and E of the low until it makes landfall.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds
along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds over the NW
Caribbean. A surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula with
scattered showers. The Monsoon Trough is along 09N/10N, passing
from the eastern Pacific Ocean to Costa Rica, Panama and northern
Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is over this area S of
10N. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Caribbean with
axis from Costa Rica to Haiti.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central
Caribbean Sea through next Wednesday. NE swell will bring seas to
8 feet in the southern part of the tropical North Atlantic Ocean
forecast waters through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 30N76W. A surface
trough extends from 32N68W to central Cuba near 23N79W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A large 1026 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 34N47W.

An upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 25N
between 55W-65W with scattered showers. An upper level low is
centered over the E Atlantic near 28N38W with scattered showers.

The current surface trough will lift NW this weekend. High
pressure will build in its wake and prevail through the middle of
the upcoming week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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