[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 AM EDT Sat May 12 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the area that is called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the
24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 13 May/0000
UTC, consists of: the persistence of a NE near gale or gale in
AGADIR.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to 01N30W
01N40W, and toward the the coast of Brazil near the Equator along 50W.
Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 03N southward from 46W westward. isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers, in a disorganized pattern, are
elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough is in the westernmost part of the Gulf of Mexico, from
700 mb to 250 mb. A 700 mb ridge reaches from 23N80W at the coast
of Cuba, W Cuba, to 16N86W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the NE corner of the
Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
rainshowers are from 23N to 25N between 83W and 86W. broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and other possible rainshowers are
elsewhere from 28N southward from 90W eastward, including across
Florida and possibly in parts of Cuba.

A surface trough is along 87W/88W from 14N in Honduras to 23N in
the Gulf of Mexico. A 1019 mb high pressure center is in the NE
corner of the area, near 29N86W.

High pressure in the northern waters will lift northward this
weekend, as a surface trough develops in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Low pressure will develop along the trough early next
week, and lift northward into the SE U.S.A. by midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad anticyclonic wind flow covers the western half of the
Caribbean Sea from 700 mb to 250 mb. A 700 mb ridge lines up along
87W/88W from El Salvador to the northern part of the Yucatan
Peninsula, in line with the surface trough that is in the same
area. Precipitation: numerous strong rainshowers in southern
Honduras and eastern El Salvador. rainshowers are possible
elsewhere, from 17N southward from 76W westward, including in
interior sections of Central America.

The Monsoon Trough is along 09N/10N, passing from the eastern
Pacific Ocean to Costa Rica, Panama and northern Colombia.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from
10N to 11N between the coast of Colombia and 77W. scattered
moderate to strong rainshowers are within a 30 nm radius of
11N82W. Convective debris clouds, from earlier already-
dissipated precipitation, are elsewhere from 14N southward from
76W westward.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail in the south central
Caribbean Sea through next Wednesday. NE swell will bring seas to
8 feet in the southern part of the tropical North Atlantic Ocean
forecast waters through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 32N70W to 27N75W, and to the coast of
Cuba near 22N78W. Clouds and Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the
NW of the line that passes through 32N51W, to 20N56W, to 20N60W.

An upper level trough extends from a 26N41W cyclonic circulation
center, to 21N46W 16N52W and 13N56W. Precipitation: Rainshowers
are possible from 20N northward between 30W and 47W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure center that
is near 36N46W, through 32N51W, to 28N61W, and 25N72W.

The current surface trough will lift NW during this weekend. High
pressure will build in its wake and prevail through the middle of
the upcoming week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net