[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
713 PM EDT Wed May 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coastal
sections of Liberia, then continues SW to near 01S20W. The ITCZ
stretches from 01S20W to 01S50W. A cluster of moderate to strong
convection is noted from the Equator to the coast of W Africa
between 07W and 10W. Similar convection is also noted S of the
ITCZ axis over NE Brazil.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge, with axis across the northern Gulf states, dominates the
Gulf region producing moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the
basin. Buoys and recent altimeter data indicate seas of 4 to 5 ft
seas across most of the area. No significant shower or thunderstorms
activity is noted. The pressure gradient will tighten slightly
tonight over the coast of Texas, between the ridge to the east and
a trough over the Southern Plains. This will allow fresh to strong
SE return flow to set up overnight, but diminish through the early
morning as the trough lifts out.

Meanwhile, a thermal trough will develop over the northwest coast
of Yucatan, a normal occurrence this time of year, and drift
westward. A surge of fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds
will accompany this trough before dissipating over the SW Gulf
later in the morning. This pattern will repeat each evening
through the period. Fresh to strong NE winds are also expected
across the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf, particularly during
the evening hours through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Persistent high pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean with seas
of 8-9 ft. The most recent scatterometer pass confirmed the
persence of these winds. Moderate to locally fresh trades are
noted elsewhere. Expect increasing winds and building seas across
the waters E of the Lesser Antilles first, then across the eastern
Caribbean Thu night into Fri due to the pressure gradient between
high pressure located E of Bermuda near 32N58W and a well defined
surface trough moving across the Bahamas. This weather pattern
will keep relatively low winds of 15 to 20 kt off the coast of
Colombia, and 10 to 15 kt elsewhere over the western Caribbean.
Moisture will remain high across east and central Cuba tonight and
Thu while drifting eastward across Hispaniola, keeping the
likelihood of scattered to numerous showers and tstms. This will
be associated with a cold core mid/upper-level low drifting
southward from the Bahamas across eastern and central Cuba to the
north central Caribbean. This unstable weather pattern could
persist the remainder of the work-week over the eastern half of
Cuba and parts of Hispaniola as the low meanders over the same
area. Lightning data currently indicate very active weather in the
form of scattered to numerous tstms over eastern Cuba, particularly
E of Camaguey.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N56W to 26N65W to the central
Bahamas near 23N77W. A surface trough stretches from this point to
near the Cayman Islands. A large area of multi-layer clouds with
embedded showers and tstms is noted along the frontal boundary
affecting mainly the central and SE Bahamas. The convective
activity is most concentrated S of the front between 70W and 77W.
The most recent scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong winds
NE winds within about 180 nm north of this frontal boundary and east
of the Bahamas. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient
between a 1028 mb high pressure center located near 32N72W and
the front. This pattern is also supporting fresh to strong winds
across the Straits of Florida, forecast to persist tonight through
Thu night with building seas of up to 10 or 11 ft.

A sharp upper-level trough reaches from the north central Atlantic,
across Bermuda, to the waters north of the northern Bahamas. A
cold-core mid/upper low will become cutoff from the trough Thu and
drift across the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba. An associated
surface trough will develop N of Puerto Rico Thu morning. Active
weather spawned by the instability of the cold-core low along
with abundant moisture drawn northward in a fresh to strong SE
wind flow will accompany the surface trough as it moves W through
the Bahamas by late Fri and into the Florida peninsula Sat. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible across South Florida this
weekend as well as over western Cuba. Fresh to strong NE winds are
expected ahead of the trough, and fresh to strong SE winds will
follow the trough, impacting mainly the waters S of 27N-28N and W
of 65W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a
1029 mb high pressure located over the Azores.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR/EC
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