[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021720
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 PM EDT Wed May 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W, to the Equator along 16W, to 01S20W. The ITCZ
continues from 01S20W to 01S30W, to the Equator along 43W, to the
Equator along 48W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N southward
from 16W eastward, and from 05N southward from 40W westward.
isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1028 mb high
pressure center that is near 32N72W, passing through the Florida
Panhandle, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level trough is digging southeastward, from the Florida
Panhandle into the Straits of Florida. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, to the west of
the trough.

A surface ridge will persist across the Deep South of the U.S.A.,
maintaining moderate-to-fresh easterly winds across the basin,
Fresh-to-strong SE return flow off Texas tonight. The wind speeds
in the Gulf will diminish on Saturday, as low pressure in the
central U.S.A. weakens and the high pressure center moves
eastward. A trough will develop across the Yucatan Peninsula each
afternoon and evening, and move W each night beyond 95W, from
tonight through Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the eastern
Pacific Ocean, just off the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
70W westward. Upper level NW wind flow covers the rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

High pressure off the Carolina coast will slide slowly eastward
along 32N through Thursday, and maintain fresh trade winds across
the basin, with locally strong trade winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea. A broad trough will drift across the central
Caribbean Sea, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through
late week. An level upper disturbance will bring active weather
to the north central Caribbean Sea and Windward Passage by late
Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N56W to 29N60W 25N70W, across
the Bahamas, to 23N78W. A surface trough continues from 23N78W,
across Cuba, to 19N82W about 30 nm to the NW of Grand Cayman
Island. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are within 150 nm to 210 nm on either side of the line
that passes through 32N54W to 26N57W to 24N67W and 24N80W.

The part of the stationary front that is to the W of 70W will
drift WNW tonight through Thursday, and then weaken. High pressure
off the Carolina coast will shift eastward very slowly along 32N
through Thursday, and then maintain fresh-to-strong winds N of
front. A surface trough will develop N of Puerto Rico on Thursday
morning. Active weather will accompany the trough as it moves W
through the Bahamas by late Friday, and into the Florida
peninsula on Saturday, followed by strong SE winds and building
seas in open waters east of the Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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