[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed May 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 02N13W, across the Equator along 16W, to 02S20W.
The ITCZ continues from 02S20W to 02S27W, across the Equator along
34W, to 01N41W, to the coast of Brazil near the Equator along 50W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from
04N southward from 06W eastward, and from 05N southward from 43W
westward. scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
from 04N to 06N between 09W and 13W. isolated moderate rainshowers
are elsewhere from 08N southward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A NE-to-SW oriented surface ridge cuts across the Gulf of Mexico.
The ridge reaches NE Florida from a 1027 mb high pressure center,
that is in the Atlantic Ocean near 33N70W.

An upper level trough is digging southeastward, from the Florida
Panhandle into the Straits of Florida. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, to the west of
the trough.

The current high pressure that is in the Atlantic Ocean,along 32N,
extends from Bermuda to the SE U.S.A., and it will shift slowly E
through Friday, maintaining an E-to-W ridge across the N Gulf
waters. The wind speeds will remain fresh to strong in the far SE
Gulf, in the Straits of Florida, and in the western Gulf through
early Friday, to the NW of a stalled cold front that will be across
the central Bahamas. The winds in the Gulf will slacken on
Saturday, as low pressure in the central U.S.A. weakens and the
high moves eastward. A thermal trough will develop across the
Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening and move westward
each night beyond 95W, from tonight through Saturday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the eastern
Pacific Ocean, just off the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala.
Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea.

High pres W of Bermuda will slide slowly E along 32N through Thu
and maintain fresh trades across the entire area south of 17N,
with locally strong trades across the south central Caribbean. The
southern portion of a broad inverted trough will move W across
the extreme NE Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic Wed night, reach
along 69W by Thu evening, then across Hispaniola to 73W by Fri
evening, and along 77W Sat morning. High pres to the NE will
support fresh to strong E to SE winds, and active weather E of the
trough.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N55W to 30N59W. A stationary front
continues from 30N59W to 25N70W, across the Bahamas, to 21N77W at
the coast of SE Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are within 150 nm to 210 nm on either side of
the line that passes through 32N54W to 26N58W to 24N67W and
26N80W.

A stationary front extends from 31N59W through the
central Bahamas to near central Cuba near 22.5N79W, with portion
W of 70W will drift WNW tonight through Thu then weaken. High
pres between Bermuda and the E coast will shift very slowly E
along 32N through Thu the maintain fresh to strong winds N of
front. A broad inverted surface trough will develop along 65-66W
Thu morning and move W, reaching 72W Fri morning, and 76-77W Sat
morning. High pres draped across the trough will support strong
SE winds, and very active weather E of trough as is shifts W
across the area Thu night through Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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