[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
119 AM EDT Wed May 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Africa near 06N11W
to 01N26W. The ITCZ continues from 01N26W to the coast of South
America near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
within 75 nm on either side of the ITCZ mainly west of 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface high located offshore of the South Carolina coast
producing generally moderate to fresh southeasterly winds across
the basin. Generally clear skies prevail across the area. The
high will continue to move east through Friday. Easterly winds
will become fresh to strong in the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida
tonight, and continue through Friday as the high builds in the
western Atlantic.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large high pressure system over the central Atlantic will maintain
fresh easterly trade winds south of 17N, with locally strong trades
expected in the south-central Caribbean Sea south of 13N through
early Thursday. The southern extent of a broad inverted trough
will develop and move west across the northeast Caribbean by
Thursday and continue through Saturday, resulting in an increase
in showers and thunderstorms mainly east of 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 mb surface high is centered over the west Atlantic 32N74W.
To the east, a stationary front extends from 31N60W to 24N73W. A
surface trough extends from 26N62W to 21N69W with scattered
showers prevailing north of 23N and between 58W-67W. The remainder
of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored
by a 1032 mb high centered near 36N43W. A persistent wind shift
was noted across the far east Atlantic, and analyzed as a surface
trough that extends from 31N20W to 28N31W. No convection is noted
along this feature at this time. As the front and high pressure
systems weaken over the west Atlantic, surface winds are expected
to become easterly and in the gentle to moderate categories
through Thursday. By Friday, an upper-level low is forecast to
develop in the vicinity of the southeast Bahamas, inducing an
inverted surface trough from the Bahamas to Hispaniola. East of
the trough, winds will become southeasterly and increase to fresh
to strong by Fri afternoon. The combination of the upper-low and
the surface trough will produce widespread convection through
Saturday along and within 600 nm E of the trough, including
Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern
Leeward Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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