[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Tue May 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Africa near
10N14W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to cross the
equator near 23W, and westward to the coast of South America near
02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong rain showers from 02N
to 04N between 17W and 23W. Scattered moderate rain showers are
south of 03N between 28W and 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge located over South Carolina is producing generally
southeasterly winds of 10-15 kt north of 25N, with easterly flow
near 10 kt soutyh of 25N. Isolated light showers were occurring
oer the wrn Gulf offshore of the ne coast of Mexico. The high will
move ESE today, emerging over Atlantic waters by this afternoon
with ridge extending westward across the northern Gulf through
Thursday. Easterly winds will become fresh to strong in the SE
Gulf and Straits of Florida later today, and continue through
early Thursday as high pressure builds southeastward in the
western Atlantic Ocean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sprawling high pressure system over the central Atlantic is
maintaining fresh E trade winds south of 17N, with locally strong
trades expected in the south-central Caribbean S of 13N through
early Thursday. The southern part of a broad inverted trough will
develop and move across eastern Caribbean Sea Wednesday night, and
then move over Hispaniola Thursday night and Friday, followed by
fresh to locally strong E to SE winds along with an increase in
showers and thunderstorms.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N62W in the Atlantic Ocean, then
becomes diffuse E of the central Bahamas near 24N76W. Scattered to
numerous showers continue SE of the frontal boundary north of 26N
between 59W and 65W. A 1033-mb High, centered in the central Atlantic
near 37N43W, is producing broad anticyclonic wind flow across the
region east of the cold front. West of the front, light northerly
flow dominates, and is expected to continue through early Thursday
as the front weakens then becomes stationary from 31N59W to 24N70W
by Wed. High pressure will slide eastward along 31N tonight through
early Thu and bring fresh to strong NE to E winds to much of the
waters NW of the front. A broad surface trough will approach 67W
Thursday and move W to 72W Friday, followed by fresh to locally
strong E to SE winds and more active weather.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Stewart
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