[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Tue May 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Africa near
10N14W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to cross the
equator near 23W, and westward to the coast of South America
near 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong rain showers
from 02N to 04N between 17W and 23W. Scattered moderate rain
showers are south of 03N between 28W and 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow associated with a ridge centered
near South Carolina prevails across the basin, with isolated
showers observed in the SW Gulf, south of 24N and west of 94W.
The high pressure center will move ESE overnight, with the ridge
extending westward across the northern Gulf through Thursday.
Easterly winds will become fresh to strong in the SE Gulf and
Straits of Florida later today, and continue through early
Thursday as high pressure builds southeastward in the western
Atlantic Ocean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure in the central Atlantic extends a broad ridge into
the eastern Caribbean. The ridge will maintain fresh trade winds
south of 17N, with locally strong trades expected in the south-
central Caribbean through early Thursday. The southern part of a
broad inverted trough will pass over the eastern Caribbean Sea
Wednesday night, then across Hispaniola Thursday night and
Friday, followed by fresh to locally strong E to SE winds, and
more active weather.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N63W in the Atlantic Ocean, then
becomes diffuse across the central Bahamas near 24N77W. Clouds
and showers are evident SE of the frontal boundary north of 25N
between 60W and 66W. 1034 mb High pressure is centered in the
central Atlantic near 36N44W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
prevails across the region on either side of the cold front, and
is expected to continue through early Thursday as the front
weakens then becomes stationary from 31N59W to 24N70W by Wed.
High pressure will slide eastward along 31N tonight through
early Thu and bring fresh to strong NE to E winds to much of the
waters NW of the front. A broad surface trough will approach 67W
Thursday and move W to 72W Friday, followed by fresh to locally
strong E to SE winds and more active weather.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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