[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively
strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support
winds pulsing to gale force near the coast of Colombia. The gale
force winds will recur each night during the evening and overnight
hours, through Friday morning, while this surface weather pattern
persists. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details. This information also is found at the
following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N30W to Brazil near
01S42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between
25W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a cold front extends from W Cuba near 23N80W to
25N83W. A surface trough continues to S Mississippi near 30N89W.
Scattered to broken low level clouds are within 60 nm of the front
and trough. Radar imagery shows the entire Gulf of Mexico is void
of precipitation.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

A strong surface ridge that extends from the western Atlantic
Ocean into the western Gulf of Mexico will maintain fresh-to-
strong SE return flow through Thursday morning. A cold front is
forecast to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning. The
front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of
Campeche on Friday morning, and then weaken from central Florida
to the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday night. High pressure will build
across the SE CONUS in the wake of the front, supporting NE
moderate-to-fresh winds through Saturday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia.

Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for
additional information.

A cold front enters central Cuba near 22N77W and extends to W Cuba
near 23N80W and continues to the SE Gulf of Mexico. The front is
void of precipitation.

The southernmost point of a surface trough reaches N of Puerto
Rico near 19N66W. Scattered showers are over Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands.

An upper level trough passes through 20N68W to 15N71W. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow is moving across the southern half of the
Bahamas, SE Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.

High pressure in the SW N Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to
strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through
Saturday. The winds will pulse to near-gale force along the NW
coast of Colombia each night through Friday morning. The next gale
is to start 28/0300 UTC. Large N to NE swells will propagate into
NE Caribbean Sea passages from Tuesday night through Friday
morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N55W to 25N62W, 22N70W, to central
Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm
SE of the front N of 24N.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area E of 51W. A 1032
mb high pressure center is near 38N19W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N27W, about
700 nm to the west of the coast of the Western Sahara. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 400
nm to 800 nm to the east of the cyclonic center, near the Canary
Islands and in northern sections of the Western Sahara.

The current Atlantic cold front will push southward across the
Bahamas today, and it will be to the E of the area late on
Wednesday night. Strong NE winds will affect the Bahamas and
adjacent waters through tonight, and then the approaches of the
Windward Passage through Friday. Large NE swell will impact the
waters NE of the Bahamas through Friday morning. A cold front will
move off NE Florida on Friday afternoon, then stall on Saturday
morning before it lifts N of the area late on Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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