[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively
strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support
winds pulsing to gale force near the coast of Colombia. The gale
force winds will recur each night during the evening and overnight
hours, through Friday morning, while this surface weather pattern
persists. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details. This information also is found at the
following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections
of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from
06N16W, crossing the Equator along 34W, to 01S42W, off the coast
of Brazil. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 05N southward between 23W and 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the Florida Keys near 23N80W to 24N83W.
The cold front is dissipating from 24N83W beyond southern
Mississippi. Scattered to broken low level clouds are in the
waters that are between the line from Key West-to-the Florida Big
Bend and 90W.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.

A strong surface ridge that extends from the western Atlantic
Ocean into the western Gulf of Mexico will maintain fresh-to-
strong SE return flow through Thursday morning. A cold front is
forecast to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning. The
front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of
Campeche on Friday morning, and then weaken from central Florida
to the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday night. High pressure will build
across the SE CONUS in the wake of the front, supporting NE
moderate-to-fresh winds through Saturday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia.

Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for
additional information.

The southernmost point of a surface trough reaches 19N66W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N to 20N
between 62W and 69W, including around the nearby islands of the
Caribbean Sea.

An upper level trough passes through 20N68W to 15N71W. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow is moving across the southern half of the
Bahamas, SE Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.

High pressure in the SW N Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to
strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through
Saturday. The winds will pulse to near-gale force along the NW
coast of Colombia each night through Friday morning, Minimal
gale-force winds are expected from Wednesday night through
Thursday morning. Large N to NE swells will propagate into NE
Caribbean Sea passages from Tuesday night through Friday morning.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N56W to 26N60W, 22N70W, 23N80W, and
24N83W. The cold front is dissipating from 24N83W beyond southern
Mississippi. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are
within 120 nm on either side of the line that passes through
32N56W 25N62W 23N70W and 23N82W. A surface trough, the remnants
of a dissipating stationary front, is along 31N54W 25N58W 19N66W.
Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of 32N53W 25N58W
19N64W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 16N to
20N between 62W and 69W, including around the nearby islands of
the Caribbean Sea.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 51W
eastward. A 1033 mb high pressure center is near 37N28W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N27W, about
700 nm to the west of the coast of the Western Sahara. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 400
nm to 800 nm to the east of the cyclonic center, near the Canary
Islands and in northern sections of the Western Sahara.

The current 32N56W-to-24N83W cold front will push southward
across the Bahamas today, and it will be to the E of the area
late on Wednesday night. Strong NE winds will affect the Bahamas
and adjacent waters through this afternoon, and then the
approaches of the Windward Passage through Friday. Large NE swell
will impact the waters NE of the Bahamas through Friday morning.
A cold front will move off NE Florida on Friday afternoon, then
stall on Saturday morning before it lifts N of the area late on
Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net