[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively
strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support
winds pulsing to gale force near the coast of Colombia. The gale
force winds will recur each night during the evening and overnight
hours, through at least Thursday morning, while this surface
weather pattern persists. Please read the High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. This information also is
found at the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine.

...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force NE winds are
forecast to continue for the following areas: AGADIR, and severe
gusts between the islands of the Canary Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to
01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is along the coast of Liberia from
04N-09N between 08W-11W. Isolated moderate convection is from
01N-04N between 24W-32W. Similar convection is along the coast of
Brazil from 01S-04S between 36W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 26/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from S Florida near 27N80W
to the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W. Isolated showers are along
the Florida Atlantic coast N of 27N. The remainder of basin is
void of precipitation.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from the eastern
Pacific Ocean, across Mexico, and into the westernmost parts of
the Gulf of Mexico.

A strong surface ridge, extending from the western Atlantic
Ocean across the eastern and central Gulf waters, will maintain
strong SE return flow through early Thursday afternoon. The ridge
will weaken starting on Thursday afternoon, as it shifts eastward
in response to a cold front that enters the NW Gulf early on
Thursday. The cold front will reach from SE Louisiana to near
Tuxpan, Mexico by Thursday night, and weaken as it reaches from
near Sarasota to the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night. The front
will be preceded by a trough, and followed by mainly fresh N to
NE winds, except for strong NW winds along parts of the Mexican
coast adjacent to the SW Gulf on Friday. A trough will develop
over the Yucatan peninsula each evening through Friday, and shift
westward across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia.

Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for
additional information.

15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. A Gale is forecast
to start on 27/0000 UTC along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered
showers are noted over the Windward Islands, and inland over
Hispaniola.

An upper level trough passes across the Bahamas, Cuba, and
Hispaniola, and the central Caribbean with axis along 72W.

High pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to
locally strong trades across the south central Caribbean Sea
during the next several days. The winds will pulse to minimal gale
force along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours
through Thursday. Strong E winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras each night from Monday night through Thursday night.
Strong NE winds will pulse through the Windward Passage through
Thursday night. An extensive set of large N to NE swells will
propagate into the NE Caribbean passages from Wednesday through
Thursday night, and then subside.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends over the W Atlantic from
32N59W to 27N64W to 25N70W to S Florida near 27N80W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the front E of 78W. A dissipating
stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 32N48W to
24N60W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front N of 26N.
A 1032 mb high is centered over the Azores near 38N24W. A ridge
axis extends SW from the high to the E Atlantic near 25N45W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N26W, about
600 nm to the west of the coast of the Western Sahara.

A W Atlantic cold front will move E to the central Atlantic and
dissipate on Wed. Large N to NE swells will impact mainly the
waters NE and E of the Bahamas from Tuesday through early
Thursday. These swells will propagate into the NE Caribbean
passages from Wednesday through Thursday. The next cold front
should approach the far northwest corner of the area on Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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