[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
151 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively
strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support
winds pulsing to gale force near the coast of Colombia. The gale
force winds will recur each night during the evening and overnight
hours, through at least Thursday morning, while this surface
weather pattern persists. Please read the High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. This information also is
found at the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine.

...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force NE winds are
forecast to continue for the following areas: AGADIR, and severe
gusts between the islands of the Canary Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to
05N20W, crossing the Equator along 33W, to 02S41W, just off the
coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers, in a disorganized pattern, are to the south of
the line 11N16W 07N30W 06N54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 28N75W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
Florida near 29N81W, beyond the Florida Panhandle. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are to the N of the line that passes through 26N80W at the eastern
coast of Florida, to 27N85W in the Gulf of Mexico, to 28N90W just
to the south of Louisiana.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from the eastern
Pacific Ocean, across Mexico, and into the westernmost parts of
the Gulf of Mexico.

A strong surface ridge, extending from the western Atlantic
Ocean across the eastern and central Gulf waters, will maintain
strong SE return flow through early Thursday afternoon. The ridge
will weaken starting on Thursday afternoon, as it shifts eastward
in response to a cold front that enters the NW Gulf early on
Thursday. The cold front will reach from SE Louisiana to near
Tuxpan, Mexico by Thursday night, and weaken as it reaches from
near Sarasota to the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday night. The front
will be preceded by a trough, and followed by mainly fresh N to
NE winds, except for strong NW winds along parts of the Mexican
coast adjacent to the SW Gulf on Friday. A trough will develop
over the Yucatan peninsula each evening through Friday, and shift
westward across the SW Gulf during the overnight hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia.

Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for
additional information.

An upper level trough passes across the Bahamas, and Cuba and
Hispaniola, reaching 13N75W in the Caribbean Sea, about 300 nm to
the south of Hispaniola. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers have been active between Haiti and Jamaica, now moving
into the coastal waters of SE Jamaica.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches, for the period ending at
26/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.23 in St.
Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, 0.17 in San Juan in Puerto
Rico, and 0.01 in Trinidad.

High pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to
locally strong trades across the south central Caribbean Sea
during the next several days. The winds will pulse to minimal
gale force along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight
hours through Thursday. Strong E winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Honduras each night from Monday night through Thursday night.
Strong NE winds will pulse through the Windward Passage through
Thursday night. An extensive set of large N to NE swells will
propagate into the NE Caribbean passages from Wednesday through
Thursday night, and then subside.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N64W, about 60 nm to the east of
Bermuda, to 28N71W, to Florida near 29N81W, beyond the Florida
Panhandle. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the N of the line that
passes through 32N56W 27N65W 25N73W 27N80W 27N83W.

A stationary front passes through 32N48W to 23N60W. The
stationary front is dissipating from 23N60W to 19N64W at the edge
of the NE part of the Caribbean Sea near the British Virgin
Islands. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are within
60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the line that passes through
32N48W 28N53W 22N64W 20N64W. Broken low level clouds and other
possible rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 13N to 26N
between 44W and 60W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N25W, about
600 nm to the west of the coast of the Western Sahara.
Precipitation: isolated moderate within 500 nm to the NE of the
cyclonic center, and within 300 nm to the NW of the center.

A backdoor cold front extending from 31N65W to 28N71W, and to
inland Florida near Melbourne will sweep southward across the
remainder of the basin through Tuesday, reaching the far
southeastern waters on Tuesday night as it weakens. The surface
pressure gradient will result in strong NE to E winds in the area
through early Tuesday, then become confined to the far southern
waters from the rest of Tuesday through Wednesday. The wind speeds
are forecast to diminish by Wednesday, as the high pressure
weakens as it slides eastward. Strong NE winds will pulse near the
entrance of the Windward Passage through Friday. Large N to NE
swells will impact mainly the waters NE and E of the Bahamas from
Tuesday through early Thursday. These swells will propagate into
the NE Caribbean passages from Wednesday through Thursday. The
next cold front should approach the far northwest corner of the
area on Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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