[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A first cold front is along 31N75W 25N80W. A second cold front,
that is stronger and reinforcing, passes through 31N79W to the
Florida coast near 29N81W. The first front is about 180 nm to the
E and SE of the second front. Winds to minimal gale force can be
expected north of 28N today, before diminishing to less than gale
force tonight. The fronts will merge before stalling across the
far SE waters during this weekend. Please read the High Seas
Forecast, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, for more
details, and the OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SW AND TROPICAL
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA, listed under the
WMO/AWIPS headers, FZNT23 KNHC/OFFNT3, for more details.

...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the areas: AGADIR, TARFAYA, and CANARIAS. The
OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid
until 22/1200 UTC, consists of: the threat of a NE near-gale or
locally gale in AGADIR, TARFAYA, CANARIAS, and CAP BLANC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to
02N29W, and to 01N36W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers, in a disorganized pattern, are to the south of
the line 08N13W 04N30W 03N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the Gale Warning.

A first cold front cuts across the area, passing through the
Straits of Florida near 25N80W, across NW Cuba, across the
northern parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 19N96W in the northern
part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The front
becomes stationary near 19N96W, and it continues northwestward to
25N101W. A second cold front is moving through Florida across Lake
Okeechobee, to 25N84W and 24N90W in the Gulf of Mexico. The second
cold front is about 180 nm to the NW of the first cold front.

A first cold front moved southeast of the region this morning. The
first front is being followed by a second and stronger
reinforcing cold front, that is moving through the eastern Gulf.
The second front will shift southeast of the area today. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front and prevail through
Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the webpage, www.nadma.gd, for
additional information.

A broad surface trough is apparent in the isobaric pattern, from
the Windward Passage to the coast of Colombia along 76W/77W.

High pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to
locally strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea
during the next several days. Winds will reach near gale force
along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the Gale Warning.

A first cold front is along 31N75W 25N80W. A second cold front,
that is stronger and reinforcing, passes through 31N79W to the
Florida coast near 29N81W. The first front is about 180 nm to the
E and SE of the second front. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N to 30N
between 68W and 74W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1035 mb high pressure center that
is near 36N24W, through 33N32W, to 30N41W, 27N54W, 23N63W, and to
21N79W near Cuba. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean to the east of the two cold fronts, that are in the
western sections of the Atlantic Ocean.

Winds to minimal gale force can be expected north of 28N today
before diminishing to less than gale force tonight. The fronts
will merge before stalling across the far SE waters during this
weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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