[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front is along 31N77W 27N80W. N OF 30N E OF FRONT TO
72W SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. Please read the High
Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 for more
details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front is along 26N81.5W 20.5N96W. N OF 27N E OF 89W W TO
NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE COAST. SEAS TO 9 FT. Please read the High Seas Forecast
under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 for more details.

...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the areas: AGADIR, TARFAYA, and CANARIAS. The
OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid
until 22/1200 UTC, consists of: the threat of a NE near-gale or
locally gale in AGADIR, TARFAYA, CANARIAS, and CAP BLANC.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across the coast of Africa near 11N16W
to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 00N31W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered showers are within 75 nm either
side of the ITCZ between 29W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the Gale Warning.

A first cold front cuts across the area from south Florida, into
the south central Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes stationary
from the SW corner of the area, into Mexico near 20N at the coast,
and it continues northwestward to 25N101W. A second cold front is
moving through NE Florida, about 180 nm to the NW of the first
cold front.

The current cold front will shift SE of the area today. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front and prevail through
Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the webpage, www.nadma.gd, for
additional information.

A surface ridge anchored over the central Atlantic extends across
the basin. A 1006 mb low is centered over north Colombia. The
resultant surface pressure gradient will support fresh to locally
strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea during
the next several days. Winds will reach near-gale force along the
northwest coast of Colombia during the overnight hours.

High pressure in the western Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to
locally strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea
during the next several days. Winds will reach near gale force
along the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information about
the Gale Warning.

A cold front enters the far west Atlantic west of 82W. An area of
showers and thunderstorms is noted ahead of the front between
70W-78W. To the east, an upper level trough is in the central
Atlantic supporting a surface trough that extends from 31N47W to
26N53W. Scattered showers are observed within 150 nm east of the
trough. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin
anchored by a 1034 mb high centered near 36N26W.

Winds to minimal gale force can be expected north of 29N through
tonight, as the current cold front moves eastward across the
area. The winds will diminish below gale force later
tonight. The front will stall across the far SE waters this
weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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