[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091145
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EST Fri Mar 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 06N11W
and extends to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from that location to
00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 n
mi north of the ITCZ between 21W and 25W. Similar convection
exists within 90 n mi either side of the ITCZ west of 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure system located over Louisiana extends its
ridge across the basin producing moderate to fresh anticyclonic
across the area. Sea heights are up to 6 ft across the area,
highest over the western Gulf waters. The ridge will shift east
later today, which will cause southerly return flow to spread east
across the region. The next cold front will move over the
northern waters by late Saturday. This cold front will race across
the area on Sunday, and pass through the Straits of Florida by
late Monday. Strong northerly winds will prevail behind the front
on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from central Cuba to south
of Cozumel, Mexico. A narrow line of showers is associated with
the front affecting the area north of 20N and west of 83W. Patches
of low level moisture with embedded showers are noted across the
basin, particularly between 75W-82W affecting Jamaica, eastern
Cuba and the Windward Passage. Another band of low-level moisture
is enhancing convection over Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. The
cold front will continue moving southeast overnight across the
northwest Caribbean while weakening. Latest satellite derived
winds and surface observations indicate fresh winds over the east
and central Caribbean south of 14N between 65W-76W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the basin. Northerly
swell propagating south through the northeast Caribbean passages,
and the tropical waters east of the Lesser Antilles, will
gradually subside from the north through this evening. Near gale
force winds will pulse during the overnight hours along the
northwest coast of Colombia through the weekend. A new cold front
is expected to move southeast through the Yucatan Basin on Monday
and extend from east Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Monday night.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 32N59W to
central Cuba near 21N76W. Earlier scatterometer data indicate
fresh to locally strong southwest winds within about 120 nm east
of the front. Fresh to strong northwest winds are just off the
Florida coast. Scattered showers are associated with the front,
which is forecast to reach a position from 31N61W to east Cuba
today, then stall across the tropical waters north of the Greater
Antilles by tonight and into Saturday. Remnants of the front will
lift north on Saturday night and Sunday ahead of another cold
front that will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sunday.
Near gale-force southerly flow will develop north of the Bahamas
on Sunday ahead of this front. To the east, a 1021 mb high
pressure is centered near 24N54W. This system will move eastward
over the next 24 hours reaching a position near 26N49W. Another
cold front extends over the east Atlantic from 32N16W to 23N40W.
Fresh to strong winds are occurring on both sides of the front
mainly north of 26N. A 1018 mb high is centered near 24N51W and a
1018 mb high is centered farther east near 22N31W. The current
large northerly swell will subside slowly across the open waters
through early this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA/JPC
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net