[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1222 AM EST Fri Mar 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 06N11W
to 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S42W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 17N-21N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1022 mb located south of Louisiana extends its
ridge across the basin producing moderate to fresh anticyclonic
across the area. Sea heights are up to 8 ft across the Bay of
Campeche based on altimeter data, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. The ridge
will shift east from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Mexico by
this evening as southerly return flow spreads east across the
entire Gulf ahead of the next cold front that will move into the
northern waters by late Saturday. This cold front will race
across the Gulf waters on Sunday, then passing through the
Straits of Florida by late Monday. Strong northerly winds will
prevail behind the front on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba to south of Cozumel,
Mexico. A narrow line of showers is associated with the front
affecting the area north of 20N and west of 83W. Patches of low
level moisture with embedded showers are noted across the basin,
particularly between 75W-82W affecting Jamaica, eastern Cuba and
the Windward Passage. Another band of low-level moisture is
enhancing convection over Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. The
cold front will continue moving southeast overnight across the
northwest Caribbean while weakening. Latest satellite derived
winds and surface observations indicate fresh winds over the
east and central Caribbean south of 14N between 65W-76W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the basin. Northerly
swell propagating south through the northeast Caribbean passages,
and the tropical waters east of the Lesser Antilles, will
gradually subside from the north through this evening. Near gale
force winds will pulse during the overnight hours along the
northwest coast of Colombia through the weekend. A new cold front
is expected to move southeast through the Yucatan Basin on Monday
and extend from east Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Monday
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N62W to
central Cuba near 22N77W. Recent scatterometer data indicate
fresh to locally strong southwest winds within about 120 nm east
of the front. Fresh to strong northwest winds are just off the
Florida coast. Scattered showers are associated with the front,
which is forecast to reach a position from 31N61W to east Cuba
today, then stall across the tropical waters north of the Greater
Antilles by tonight and into Saturday. Remnants of the front will
lift north on Saturday night and Sunday ahead of another cold
front that will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sunday.
Near gale-force southerly flow will develop north of the Bahamas
on Sunday ahead of this front. To the east, a 1021 mb high
pressure is centered near 24N54W. This system will move eastward
over the next 24 hours reaching a position near 26N49W. Another
cold front extends over the east Atlantic from 31N21W to 24N44W.
Fresh to strong winds are observed per scatterometer data on
either side of the front mainly north of 26N. A 1018 mb high is
centered near 22N31W and a 1020 mb high is centered south of the
Canary Islands near 27N17W. The current large northerly swell will
subside slowly across the open waters through early this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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