[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Far Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning:

A cold front currently passes SW from 32N18W to 26N30W to 22N44W.
Cold air advection and surface troughing north of this front will
support minimal gale force winds and seas of 16 to 21 ft N of a
line from 31N44W to 28.5N40W to 28.5N35W from this evening until
Sat morning, then winds and seas will slowly subside and the
troughing N of 32N weakens and shifts E.

Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast, listed
under the AWIPS header, MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header,
FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning:

A cold front swings SW from rapidly deepening surface low pres
centered SE of New York City near 38N71W to 32N76W to near
Jacksonville Florida. The low will continue to intensify as it
heads SE and drag the cold front behind it. By this evening the
cold front should pass from near 32N63W to 25N75W to the coast of
Florida near 25.5N80W. At this time minimal gales and seas of 12
to 19 ft are expected N of 29.5N and W of the front to 76W. AS the
low heads SE, a reinforcing front will merge with the leading
cold front tonight, with strong to gale force winds prevailing
north of 24N east of 75W. The merged fronts, and associated area
of gale force winds will shift E of the area Sun. The largest
swell event thus far this winter will accompany this system,
affecting all waters E of Florida and the Bahamas through the
weekend.

Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast, listed
under the AWIPS header, MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header,
FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast
for the areas: IRVING and MADEIRA. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours
that follow the forecast that is valid until 03/1200 UTC calls for
gale force winds in these areas to subside as surface troughing
to the N weakens and shifts E.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon  trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W,
crossing the Equator along 16W, to 02S19W to 04S28W to NE of
Recife Brazil near 04S32W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate from
04S to 01S between 18W and 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico.

A cold front crosses the NW Gulf of Mexico from the coast of
Louisiana near 29N91W to Tampico Mexico near 21N98W. A reinforcing
has reached the coast of Texas and stretches from Houston to
Brownsville. Cloudiness and isolated showers are occurring over
the Gulf along and N of the leading cold front. The two cold
fronts will merge during the next 24 hours. The resulting front
will reach from the central Gulf along 25N to near Veracruz Mexico
on Friday night. The combined front will dissipate over the
western Gulf, while the eastern part of the front sinks southward
over the Straits of Florida on Saturday afternoon before
dissipating. A ridge will then build across the northern Gulf on
Sunday and Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough lies just E of the Windward Islands and
extends from 10N60W to 16N60W. Isolated rain showers can be
expected over the Windwards today as the trough heads through the
area.

Otherwise, broad upper-level ridging will maintain relatively dry
weather over the basin during the next few days.

Large NE swell will impact the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters
through Saturday. A low pressure system will develop across the
NW Atlantic Ocean, from Friday through the weekend. It will
produce a large N swell, that will penetrate the NE Caribbean Sea
Passages from Sunday through late Monday, reaching the A-B-C
Islands and coastal Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
the multiple gale-force wind events for the Atlantic Ocean.

Rainshowers are possible from 17N northward from 60W eastward.

A surface ridge passes through 22N11W in Mauritania, to a 1018 mb
high pressure center that is near 17N28W, to 17N44W.

A weak surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high pressure center,
that is centered near 30N55W across the southernmost part of
Florida, to 26N90W in the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast tonight. The
front will reach from Bermuda to SE Florida on Friday afternoon.
A reinforcing front will generate strong to gale force winds
north of 24N east of 75W, as low pressure moves off the mid-Atlc
coast. The fronts will merge on Saturday, from 22N65W to the
Windward Passage, then weaken and sweep ESE across the NE
Caribbean Sea on Sunday, before dissipating SE of the area on
Monday. The largest swell event of this winter season will
accompany this system, affecting all the waters E of Florida and
the Bahamas through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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