[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020536
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning:

The 24-hour forecast consists of: a cold front from 31N65W to
25N75W to 25.5N80W. N of 29.5N W of the cold front to 76W...W to
NW winds 25 to 35 knots. Sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 19
feet.

Far Eastern Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning:

A cold front currently passes through 32N22W to 27N30W and 23N44W.
A surface trough continues from 23N44W to 20N46W and 19N49W. A
shear line is along 22N50W 22N56W 24N61W. The 18-hour forecast
consists of: a cold front from 23N35W to 21.5N48W to 21.5N53W.
Over forecast waters, N of the line from 31N44W to 28.5N40W to
28.5N35W, W winds 30 to 35 knots. Sea heights ranging from 16 feet
to 21 feet.

Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast, listed
under the AWIPS header, MIAHSFAT2, and under the WMO header,
FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are
forecast for the areas: IRVING, MADEIRA, and CASABLANCA. The
OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid
until 03/0000 UTC, consists of: the persistence of a westerly near
gale or gale in: IRVING, MADEIRA, CASABLANCA, AGADIR, METEOR, and
CANARIAS.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W,
crossing the Equator along 16W, to 03S20W, to 04S28W, and 04S32W
off the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 05N southward from 21W
eastward, and from 10N southward between 40W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico.

A cold front is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from SE
Louisiana to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. A second cold front
is in the coastal plains of Texas, moving toward the coastal
waters of Texas. Broken multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are to the NW of the line from 32N76W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 29N83W at the Florida coast, to 27N90W, 25N94W, and to
the coast of Mexico near 18N95W.

The two cold fronts will merge during the next 24 hours. The
resulting front will reach from the central Gulf along 25N to
near Veracruz Mexico on Friday night. The front will dissipate
across the western part, while the eastern part of the front sinks
southward into the Straits of Florida on Saturday afternoon, and
then it will dissipate. A ridge will build across the northern
Gulf on Sunday and Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along 60W, from 10N to 15N. Rainshowers are
possible from 10N to 17N between 52W in the Atlantic Ocean and
65W in the Caribbean Sea.

An upper level trough/shear axis extends from 17N57W, to 15N65W
12N73W, to the coast of Panama near 09N80W. Rainshowers are
possible, in areas of scattered-to-broken low level clouds,
across the Caribbean Sea and in parts of the adjacent Atlantic
Ocean, from 20N southward from 60W westward. 24-hour rainfall
totals that are listed for the period that ended at 01/1200
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.32 in
San Juan in Puerto Rico, and 0.04 in Trinidad.

Large NE swell will impact the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters
through Saturday. A low pressure system will develop across the
NW Atlantic Ocean, from Friday through the weekend. It will
produce a large N swell, that will penetrate the NE Caribbean Sea
Passages from Sunday through late Monday, reaching the A-B-C
Islands and coastal Venezuela.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about
the multiple gale-force wind events for the Atlantic Ocean.

Rainshowers are possible from 17N northward from 60W eastward.

A surface ridge passes through 22N11W in Mauritania, to a 1018 mb
high pressure center that is near 17N28W, to 17N44W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center, that
is near 31N56W, to 26N70W, across the southernmost part of
Florida, to 26N90W in the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast tonight. The
front will reach from Bermuda to SE Florida on Friday afternoon.
A reinforcing front will generate strong to gale force winds
north of 24N east of 75W, as low pressure moves off the mid-Atlc
coast. The fronts will merge on Saturday, from 22N65W to the
Windward Passage, then weaken and sweep ESE across the NE
Caribbean Sea on Sunday, before dissipating SE of the area on
Monday. The largest swell event of this winter season will
accompany this system, affecting all the waters E of Florida and
the Bahamas through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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