[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271151
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
751 AM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis from 04N to 20N along 25W. Isolated
moderate convection is observed south of 10N between 25W-28W.
Expect a fresh northeast to east to southeast wind shift along the
wave axis as it progresses westward across the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 46W from 03N to 17N, and
is estimated to be progressing west at 15-20 kt. No significant
convection is related to this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is analyzed across the central Caribbean and
South America along 74W from 05N to 19N, and is moving west about
15-20 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at
this time.

A tropical wave is progressing west through the western
Caribbean and is currently analyzed with axis along 87W and
extends south from 18N into the east Pacific near 10N. Scattered
showers and tstms are enhanced along the wave north of 15N within
180 nm of the axis. This tropical wave has the potential to
develop into an east Pacific tropical cyclone later this week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western
Africa at 19N16W to 15N22W. West of a tropical wave, the ITCZ
forms at 05N28W and continues to 06N45W, then resumes west of a
tropical wave near 07N48W to 06N58W. Aside from the convection
described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers
and tstms are observed within 60 nm of the ITCZ from 28W to 42W
and from 50W to 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb
high centered over the west Atlantic. With this, a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow dominates the Gulf waters. A surface
trough will develop during the late afternoons and early evenings
over the Yucatan Peninsula, then shift westward across the
southwest gulf waters during the overnight hours and dissipate by
late each morning. The trough will be accompanied by a fresh to
locally strong wind shift each night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See tropical wave section above for details on two waves
progressing west through the Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong
winds are noted across the southwest Caribbean, generally from
11N to 18N between 68W and 82W. These winds will diminish from
the north, but continue across the southwest Caribbean this week.
Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong through tonight in
the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of surface highs are centered over the west Atlantic. With
these, a surface ridge extends across the basin. A weakening in
the ridge was analyzed as a trough that extends from 31N40W to
27N44W. Moderate convection is located near 30N-32N from 56W-75W
just south of a stationary front.  Two tropical waves are moving
across the tropical Atlantic. Refer to the section above for more
information. Moderate to fresh trades are noted across the tropics
with little change forecast this week. Strong winds are forecast
for the next few days during the late afternoons into the early
evening hours along the north coast of Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/CWL
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