[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed Jun 27 00:28:22 CDT 2018


AXNT20 KNHC 270528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 AM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis from 05N to 21N along 23.5W. Isolated
moderate convection is observed south of 10 N between 20W-28W.
Expect a fresh northeast to east to southeast wind shift along the
wave axis as it progresses westward across the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 44W from 02N to 18N, and
is estimated to be progressing west at 15-20 kt. No significant
convection is related to this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is analyzed across the central Caribbean and
South America along 73W from 06N to 19N, and is moving west about
15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed over
northeastern Colombia ahead of the wave's axis.

A tropical wave is progressing west through the western
Caribbean and is currently analyzed with axis along 85W and
extends south from 21N84W into the east Pacific near 05N84W.
Scattered showers and tstms are enhanced along the wave south of
18N and west of 81W. This tropical wave has the potential to
develop into an east Pacific tropical cyclone later this week.

A tropical wave is analyzed across the southern Mexico with axis along
97W and south of 23N reaching the eastern Pacific near 08N97W.
Scattered moderate convection accompanies the wave between over
the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico between 96W-100W. This
wave will likely soon become difficult to track as it merges into
a broad low pressure over the East Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western
Africa at 19N16W to 16N19W, then resumes west of a tropical wave
near 07N26W to 06N36W. The ITCZ forms at that point and continues
to 06N42W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N45W to
06N56W. Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves
section above, scattered showers are observed within 150 nm south
of the boundaries between 20W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb
high centered over the west Atlantic. With this, a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow dominates the Gulf waters. A surface
trough was analyzed across the northern waters from 28N90W to
26N92W. A surface trough will develop during the late afternoons
and early evenings over the Yucatan Peninsula, then shift westward
across the southwest gulf waters during the overnight hours and
dissipate by late each morning. The trough will be accompanied by
a fresh to locally strong wind shift each night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See tropical wave section above for details on two waves
progressing west through the Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong
winds are noted across the southwest Caribbean, generally from
11N to 18N between 68W and 82W. These winds will diminish from
the north, but continue across the southwest Caribbean this week.
Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong through tonight in
the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of surface highs are centered over the west Atlantic. With
these, a surface ridge extends across the basin. A weakening in
the ridge was analyzed as a trough that extends from 31N39W to
25N44W. Two tropical waves are moving across the tropical
Atlantic. Refer to the section above for more information.
Moderate to fresh trades are noted across the tropics with little
change forecast this week. Strong winds are forecast for the next
few days during the late afternoons into the early evening hours
along the north coast of Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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