[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed from 04N to 20N along 19.5W with a
1009 mb surface low along the wave at 15.5N. Isolated moderate
convection is observed north of the low within 120 nm either
side of the wave axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to
southeast wind shift along the wave axis as it progresses
westward across the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 40W from 03N to 17N, and is
estimated to be progressing west at 20 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is observed from 03N to 09N within 150 nm either side
of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is analyzed across the east Caribbean and South
America along 70.5W from 03N to 18N, and is moving west about 18
kt. Only isolated showers are currently observed over the
Caribbean waters mainly along the south coast of Hispaniola.
Strong clusters of convection that accompanied the wave over
western Venezuela and eastern Colombia have matured and are now
weakening.

A tropical wave is progressing west through the western
Caribbean and is currently analyzed along 81.5W and extends
south from western Cuba across Panama into the east Pacific near
01N81.5W. Scattered showers and tstms are enhanced along the
wave near 18.5N, and across the southwest Caribbean to the
southwest of a line from 14.5N83W to 10N76W. This tropical wave
has the potential to develop into an east Pacific tropical
cyclone later this week.

A tropical wave is analyzed across the southwest Gulf of Mexico
from 21.5N93W and extends south across eastern Mexico into the
east Pacific near 05N93W. Only isolated showers currently
accompany the wave over the Gulf of Mexico. This wave will
likely soon become difficult to track as it merges into a broad
low pressure over the East Pacific to the south of eastern
Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western
Africa at 16.5N16W through a 1009 mb surface low at 15.5N19W to
05.5N31W where an ITCZ forms and continues northwest through a
tropical wave at 06N40W, then turns southwest to the coast of
South America at 04N51.5W. Except as previously described near
the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed within 180 nm of 07.5N13.5W, within 150
nm either side of a line from 02N21W to 06N30W. Isolated
moderate convection is observed elsewhere within 75 nm either
side of a line from 04N35W to 09N44W to 07N58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level cyclone is centered over northeast at 26N103W.
Upper diffluence east of this cyclone is supporting scattered
showers and tstms along the eastern coast of Mexico from 18N to
23N. As the upper cyclone continues northwestward and further
inland the associated convection should diminish. An east to
west surface ridge extends across the northern coastal plains.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed east of 92W. A
surface trough will develop during the late afternoons and early
evenings over the Yucatan Peninsula, then shift westward across
the southwest gulf waters during the overnight hours and
dissipate by late each morning. The trough will be accompanied
by a fresh to locally strong wind shift each night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See tropical wave section above for details on two waves
progressing west through the Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong
winds are noted across the southwest Caribbean, generally from
11N to 18N between 68W and 82W. These trades will diminish from
the north, but continue across the southwest Caribbean this
week. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong through Tue
night in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A quasi-stationary 1023 mb surface high is centered near 29N52W
with a ridge extending westward to across north Florida.
Moderate to fresh trades are noted across the tropics with
little change forecast this week. Strong winds are forecast for
the next few days during the late afternoons into the early
evening hours along the north coast of Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Nelson
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