[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261149
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed from 04N to 16N along 17W with a
1008 mb surface low along the wave at 16N. Scattered moderate
convection is observed north of the low within 120 nm either
side of the wave axis. Expect a fresh northeast to east to
southeast wind shift along the wave axis as it progresses
westward across the tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 39W from 03N to 19N, and is
estimated to be progressing west at 20 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 09N within 150 nm either side
of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is analyzed across the east Caribbean and south
America along 69W from 02N to 18N and is moving west about 18
kt. Only isolated showers are currently observed over the
caribbean waters, but strong clusters of convection accompany
the wave over western Venezuela and eastern Colombia.

A tropical wave is moving west through the western Caribbean and
is currently analyzed along 81.5W and extends south from western
Cuba across panama into the east Pacific near 01N81.5W.
Scattered showers and tstms are enhanced along the wave near
18.5N and across the southwest Caribbean south of 13N west of
80W. This tropical wave has the potential to develop into an
east Pacific tropical cyclone late this week.

A tropical wave is analyzed across the southwest Gulf of Mexico
from 21n92.5W and extends south across eastern Mexico into the
east Pacific near 04N93W. Only isolated showers currently
accompany the wave over the Gulf of Mexico. This wave will
likely soon become difficult to track as it merges into a broad
low pressure over the East Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwest off the coast of western
Africa at 16.5N16W through a 1008 mb surface low at 16N17.5W to
05.5N34W where an ITCZ forms and continues west to the coast of
South America at 05N52W. Except as previously described near the
tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
observed within 180 nm of 07N13W, within 150 nm either side of a
line from 05N21w to 05N30W. isolated moderate convection is
observed within 75 nm either side of a line from 04N33W to
09N40W to 07N58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level cyclone is centered over northeast at 25N102W.
Upper diffluence east of this cyclone is supporting scattered
showers and tstms along the eastern coast of Mexico from 18N to
25N. As the upper cyclone continues northwestward and further
inland the associated convection should diminish. An east to
west surface ridge extends across the northern coastal plains.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed east of 91W. A
surface trough will develop during the late afternoons and early
evenings over the Yucatan peninsula. The trough will shift
westward across the southwest gulf waters during the overnight
hours and dissipating by late each morning. The trough will help
for fresh to locally strong winds west of the Yucatan peninsula
each night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See tropical wave section above for details on two waves
progressing west through the Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong
winds are noted across the southwest Caribbean, generally from
11N to 18N between 68W and 82W. These trades will diminish from
the north, but continue across the southwest Caribbean this
week. Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong through Tue
night in the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A quasi-stationary 1026 mb surface high is centered near 28N52W
with a ridge extending westward to across north Florida.
Moderate to fresh trades are noted across the tropics with
little change forecast this week. Strong winds are forecast for
the next few days during the late afternoons through early
evening hours along the north coast of Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Nelson
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