[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172302
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Three tropical waves are noted between the W coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave axis extends from 02N24W to 12N23W. This system
is moving W around 10 kt and is well defined in the TPW product as
well as in model diagnostic guidance. Associated convection has
greatly diminished during the past several hours with only
scattered showers leftover.

A tropical wave over the central Atlantic has an axis extending
from 02N43W to 12N40W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. A modest surge of
moistened air is noted in association with the wave in TPW
imagery. Only limited cloudiness and isolated showers are
associated with this wave.

A tropical wave over the tropical N Atlantic has an axis
extending from the coast of Suriname near 04N56W to 14N53W,
moving W around 15 kt. The wave coincides with a high amplitude
bulge of moisture as depicted in the TPW product. Currently,
scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 10N between 53W
and 56W.

A tropical wave moving westward over the central Caribbean has an
axis extending from the Guajira Peninsula in NE Colombia near
12N73W to the S coast of the Dominican Republic near 18N71W,
moving W around 15 kt. African dust surrounds the wave. As a
result, only shallow moisture and virtually no convection is
associated with this wave.

A tropical wave moving across the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the
Tropical NE Pacific extends northward through the Chivela Pass
into the Bay of Campeche near 20N95W and is moving W around 15 kt.
TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is embedded in deep
layer moisture. The wave is also interacting with an upper-level
trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring S of 20N E of the wave axis to 93W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12.5N17W
to 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 04N34W. In addition
to the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section,
Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is evident from
05N to 11N between 16W and 22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough extends across the western Gulf from 28N89W
to a low centered near 21N96W. Fresh to locally near gale force
winds are occurring to the NE of the low primarily over the
Gulf waters N of 22N between 88W and 94W due to a tight pressure
gradient. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection
covers the NW half of the Gulf where heavy rains and gusty winds
will persist and extend to the Texas coastal plain and SW
Louisiana coast. Very heavy rainfall continues over the Yucatan
Peninsula with localized flooding possible. Weak 1021 mb high
pressure resides over the far NE Gulf near 30N84W.

The upper-level trough will gradually move WNW through Mon,
accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms that could
produce rough seas. The upper-level trough is inducing surface
troughing along the Texas coastal plain. The tight pressure
gradient will continue to support fresh to strong SE winds over
the west-central Gulf waters. These winds will spread westward
through Tue while gradually diminishing as the trough shifts
farther inland over Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong trades across the S central Caribbean from 11N to 14N
between 73W and 79W will gradually decrease in areal coverage
through mid week. Similar pulsing winds will continue in the
vicinity of the Gulf of Honduras.

A tropical wave will reach the waters E of the Lesser Antilles
later tonight, then enter the eastern Caribbean Tue through Wed
night. This system is expected to be accompanied by scattered
showers and thunderstorms. As the wave passes across the Lesser
Antilles into the eastern Caribbean, it will bring gusty winds and
a modest increase in showers and thunderstorms to the Leeward
Islands, the UK/US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends SW from 32N56W to 26N70W to 30N79W with the
western portion in the process of dissipating. Cloudiness,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present along and
up to 180 nm SE of the front to the E of 70W. High pressure
measuring 1032 mb centered over the Azores near 39N26W ridges SW
to the N of Puerto Rico near 22N68W.

The cold front will stall over and E of the northern Bahamas
during the next couple of days while weakening. The high pressure
ridge over the Azores will continue to ridge SW across the
western Atlantic.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Lewitsky
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net