[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171743
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
143 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Three tropical waves are noted between the W coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles.

A tropical wave axis extends from 02N22W to 12N22W. This system
is moving W around 10 kt and is well defined in the TPW product
as well as in model diagnostics guidance. Scattered moderate
convection is present within 120 nm of the wave axis between 04N
and 08N.

A tropical wave over the E Atlantic has an axis extending from
02N42W to 12N39W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. A modest surge of
moistened air is noted in association with the wave in TPW
imagery. Only limited cloudiness and isolated showers are
associated with this wave.

A tropical wave over the central Atlantic has an axis extending
from 05N55W to 14N52W, moving W around 15 kt. The wave coincides
with a high amplitude bulge of moisture as depicted in the TPW
product. Currently, scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is seen from 08N to 11N between 52W and 55W.

A tropical wave moving westward over the eastern Caribbean has an
axis extending from 12N70W to 19N68W, moving W around 15 kt.
African dust surrounds the wave. As a result, only shallow
moisture and virtually no convection is associated with this wave.

A tropical wave moving across the border of Guatemala and Mexico
has an axis extending from 12N92W to 19N92W and is moving W
around 15 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is
embedded in deep layer moisture. The wave is also interacting with
an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to
numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from
11N to 20N between 91W and 96W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea Bissau on the coast of
Africa near 12N15W to 06N27W. The ITCZ continues from 06N27W to
04N34W. In addition to the convection mentioned in the Tropical
Waves section, Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection
is evident from 07N to 09N between 13W and 17W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from
04N to 10N between 11W and 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough extends across the western Gulf from 25N88W
to a low centered near 22N94W to 24N94W. Fresh to locally strong
winds are occurring to the NE of the low primarily over the
central Gulf waters from 25N to 29N between 86W and 92W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection covers much of
the central Gulf from 25N to 28N between 87W and 93W. Heavy rains
and gusty winds will continue to head NW across the Gulf waters
today and tonight and cross the Texas and southwestern Louisiana
coasts. Weak 1020 mb high pressure resides over northern Florida
near 30N83W.

The upper-level trough will gradually move WNW through Mon,
accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms that could
produce rough seas. The upper-level trough is inducing surface
troughing along the Texas coast. A tightening of the pressure
gradient between the surface trough and high pressure that extends
westward from the Atlantic will continue to support fresh to
strong SE winds over the west-central Gulf waters. These winds
will spread westward through Tue while gradually diminishing as
the trough shifts inland over Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong trades across the south central Caribbean between 69W and
76W will gradually decrease in areal coverage through mid week.
The strongest winds will become confined to the S central waters,
with similar pulsing winds continuing in the vicinity of the Gulf
of Honduras.

A tropical wave will reach the waters E of the Lesser Antilles
tonight, then enter the eastern Caribbean Tue through Wed night.
This system is expected to be accompanied by scattered showers and
thunderstorms. As the wave passes across the Lesser Antilles into
the eastern Caribbean, it will bring gusty winds and a modest
increase in showers and thunderstorms to the Leeward Islands, the
UK/US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends SW from 32N57W to 26N71W to 29N76W, then
continues as a weakening cold front to 31N71W. Cloudiness,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present along and
up to 150 nm SE of the front to the E of 70W. High pressure
measuring 1032 mb centered over the Azores near 38N26W ridges SW
to N of Puerto Rico near 22N67W.

The cold front will stall over and east of the northern Bahamas
during the next couple of days, then weaken. The high pressure
ridge over the Azores will continue to ridge SW across the western
Atlantic.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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