[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071718
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
118 PM EDT Thu Jun 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W south of 13N,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
rainshowers elsewhere from 10N to 20N from 30W eastward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W/50W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. no significant
precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant
convective precipitation. The wave is moving through the area of
an already-existing upper level trough.

A tropical wave is moving through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico, along 94W, moving westward 10 knots.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in interior sections of
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea to 10N14W and 08N23W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N28W to 04N43W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N to 10N from
53W at the coast of French Guiana eastward. isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 10N to 14N between Africa and 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, with a trough
in the central part of the area. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong rainshowers cover the Gulf of Mexico and parts
of Florida from 24N northward between 80W and 89W. wind flow

A weak surface ridge will persist in the northern Gulf into early
next week. Moderate to fresh SE return flow will set up in the
northwest Gulf by late Sunday, between the ridge and a surface
trough that will be to the west of the area. A surface trough will
develop along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, then drift
westward in the the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico at
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and Central America and the Caribbean Sea,
from NE Nicaragua northward from Haiti westward. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the
waters from just off the coast of NE Honduras to 19N between 80W
and 86W. scattered to numerous strong rainshowers cover the areas
that are from the coast of Panama along 80W to 13N in SE Nicaragua
between 80W and 85W. Multilayered convective debris clouds cover
the Caribbean Sea between 70W and 80W.

The monsoon trough is along 09N from Colombia along 74W westward,
beyond southern Costa Rica.

Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the central Caribbean
Sea. The wind speeds will reach near-gale force, mainly at night,
near Colombia and Venezuela through Sunday. Fresh to strong winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday night.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere through early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through Bermuda to 32N71W. Abundant
moisture is streaming northeastward, on the eastern side of the
Gulf of Mexico-to-NW Caribbean Sea and N central Caribbean Sea
upper level trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward,
to the west of the line that passes through 32N54W 20N70W.

A cold front passes through 32N30W to 31N38W. No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

A surface ridge passes through 32N42W, to 29N48W 26N58W, across
the Bahamas, to 24N81W in the Straits of Florida.

A surface ridge, that is along 23N, will drift northward to 28N
by late Friday, and persist into early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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