[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Thu Jun 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W south of 13N,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: Scattered moderate
rainshowers from 05N-10N between 21W-28W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W, from Jamaica
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. No significant
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery due to
Saharan dust.

A tropical wave is moving through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico, along 92W/93W, moving westward 10 knots.
Precipitation:  Scattered moderate convection is observed along
the wave's axis mainly south of 19N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through SW Mauritania, to 10N20W and
08N23W. The ITCZ continues from 07N27W to 04N39W, and 05N46W.
Precipitation: scattered rainshowers are along the ITCZ between
27W and 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northeastern portion of the
basin from 29N94W to 28N83W. Scattered showers cover the eastern Gulf
waters in the vicinity of the front mainly east of 83W. Another
area of scattered showers is noted over the Straits of Florida.
THe tropical wave moving over the Yucatan Peninsula is enhancing
convection inland mainly south of 18N.

An upper-level trough extends from the NE corner of the basin
along 87W-88W reaching the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

The current stationary front from Tampa Florida to northeast
Texas will dissipate later today. A surface trough will develop
along the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, then drift westward in
the the southwest Gulf at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico into the Yucatan Peninsula. Broad upper-level anticyclonic
wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean, to the east of the
trough. Scattered showers are noted over the western half of the
basin mainly west of 73W.

The monsoon trough is along 10N from NW Colombia westward, beyond
NW Costa Rica. At this time, scattered showers are along this
boundary affecting Panama and Costa Rica.

Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the central Caribbean
Sea. The wind speeds will reach near-gale force, mainly at night,
near Colombia and Venezuela through Sunday. Fresh to strong winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday night.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere through early
next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 28N80W
to 31N72W. Abundant moisture is streaming northeastward, on the
eastern side of the NE Gulf of Mexico-to-Yucatan Peninsula upper
level trough. With these, scattered moderate convection is
observed over the northern Bahamas mainly south of the front. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge,
anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N24W.

The current stationary front will dissipate later today. A surface
ridge, that is along 23N, will drift northward to 28N by late
Friday, and persist into early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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