[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 PM EDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W from 14N
southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are from 06N to 08N between 18W and 22W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is along 43W/44W from 13N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate ITCZ-related rainshowers are from 07N southward between
40W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 17N68W 14N70W 10N71W,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.
The wave will pass due south of Hispaniola for the rest of the day
today.

A tropical wave is along 90W from 20N southward, in the Yucatan
Peninsula, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. no significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is absent in the Atlantic Ocean at 06/12Z.
It is inland. The ITCZ is along 06N22W 06N27W 05N33W 03N40W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
are from 12N southward between Africa and 60W. The comparatively
greatest concentrations of precipitation are: about 120 nm to the
southwest of the coast of Liberia, from 03N to 10N between 20W and
35W, and within 100 nm of the coast of South America between 49W
and 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from a 1009 mb Atlantic Ocean low
pressure center that is near 33N76W, across northern Florida,
continuing across the northernmost parts of the Gulf of Mexico,
and beyond the Upper Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the
Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward between 80W and 91W, including
across Florida.

An upper level trough extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico into the Yucatan Peninsula. The current 90W tropical wave
is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula also. No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

A stationary front across the NE Gulf from northern Florida to
New Orleans will dissipate slowly through tonight. A surface
trough will develop along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon,
and then drift westward in the the SW Gulf at night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of
Mexico into the Yucatan Peninsula. Broad upper level anticyclonic
wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea, to the east of the
trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are from 15N northward from 74W westward, being
on the eastern side of the trough.

The monsoon trough is along 10N from NW Colombia westward, beyond
NW Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 13N southward from 76W
westward to Central America.

Fresh to strong trade winds will persist in the central Caribbean
Sea, The wind speeds will be near gale force, mainly at night,
near Colombia and Venezuela through Sunday. Fresh to strong winds
are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Saturday night.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere through
Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from a 1009 mb Atlantic Ocean low
pressure center that is near 33N76W, across northern Florida,
continuing across the northernmost parts of the Gulf of Mexico,
and beyond the Upper Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are to the north of the line that runs from
27N80W at the coast of Florida beyond 32N67W. Other isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are present from 25N
northward between 60W and 74W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1025 mb Atlantic Ocean high
pressure center that is near 32N26W, to 27N40W, to a 1020 mb high
pressure center that is near 24N54W, to 22N70W, and eventually
toward NW Cuba.

Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 20N to 28N between 70W and 80W, covering the Bahamas and
parts of Cuba. Abundant moisture is streaming northeastward, on
the eastern side of the NE Gulf of Mexico-to-Yucatan Peninsula
upper level trough.

A broad ridge across the west-central Atlantic Ocean will
dominate the regional weather through Sunday. A stationary front
will linger off northeast Florida through Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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