[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061151
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
751 AM EDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1150 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has emerged from the African coast over the
evening hours, located along 18W and S of 14N. The wave is
associated with scattered moderate convection between the African
coast and 20W.

A low amplitude tropical wave axis is along 42W and S of 12N
moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is related to
this wave at this time.

A tropical wave axis is along 68W and S of 17N, moving west
across the eastern Caribbean at 15 kt. No convection is related
to this wave at this time due to the presence of African dust over
the E Caribbean. The wave will pass due south of Hispaniola
through today.

A tropical wave axis is along 89W and S of 20N, moving westward
at 15 kt across the Yucatan Peninsula. Abundant moisture is
related to the wave based on water vapor animation. The wave is
generating scattered showers and isolated tstms over parts of
northern Central America and the Yucatan Basin, mainly west of
85W. This moisture will continue spreading across the Yucatan area
through the next 24 hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is absent over Atlantic waters at 06Z and has
moved inland over the Mauritania coastline and eastward. The ITCZ
eastern edge is located 06N21W to 05N40W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the boundaries between 20W-35W.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from NE Florida to across the NE Gulf
to Southern Louisiana. Scattered showers are associated with the
front, forecast to slowly dissipate today. The remainder of the
Gulf is under the influence of a 1015 mb high pressure located
near 24N85W. This system extends a ridge toward the coast of Texas
and is producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow.

A tropical wave is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula enhancing
convection in the SE gulf. This activity will continue through
the next 24 hours. Otherwise, ridging extending from the Atlc will
prevail across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scatterometer data along with surface observations show fresh to
strong winds across the south-central Caribbean while altimeter
data indicate seas to near 8ft with the strongest winds. Fresh to
strong trade winds will persist in the central Caribbean with
winds reaching near gale force at times in the S central
Caribbean. Winds are expected to reach minimal gale-force by
tonight. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing
to fresh to strong at times in the Gulf of Honduras.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean while
another wave is exiting the west Caribbean and enhancing
convection west of 85W. See the Tropical Waves section for more
details. SW winds ahead of an upper-level trough extending across
the Straits of Florida into the Yucatan Peninsula is transporting
abundant upper level moisture from Central America across the NW
Caribbean into eastern Cuba. To the south, scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted over the SW Caribbean, likely
associated with the proximity of the monsoon trough south of 12N
and west of 80W. This convective activity is affecting parts of
Panama and Costa Rica. Moisture will remain high across this area
over the next couple of days, keeping the likelihood of more
convection.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the far NW portion of the
forecast area and reaching northern Florida into the NE Gulf of
Mexico. Scattered showers are along the frontal boundary. This
front will linger through the next several days. The remainder of
the Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge anchored by a 1018 mb
high pressure centered near 24N53W and a 1025 mb high near 30N37W.
The highs are expected to strengthen through late Fri.

SAL imagery indicates an area of Saharan dust extending across
the Atlantic to over the Lesser Antilles and behind the tropical
wave located along 68W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Manougian
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